Nicolò
Casale
CBItaly · Bologna FC 1909
Player dossierSerie A
NicolòCasale
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- Bologna FC 1909
- League
- Serie A
- Nationality
- Italy
- Age
- 28
- Height
- 191 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 29 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Casale at €3.8M. Model A, which never saw Casale during training, estimates €5.9M: the market value is 35% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.54. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.9M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 42
- Minutes
- 2,465
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 1
- Started
- 26/42
- Min / app
- 59
- Cards
- 3Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Casale…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €3.8M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
26% this player0% defender median91st percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Nov 2015
- Peak
- €22M
- Jun 2023
- Model target
- €3.8M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 26
- 8 club changes
May 2026: €3.8M, Bologna FC 1909. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2015-11-27 | €50k | Hellas Verona Primavera |
| 2016-06-08 | €75k | Hellas Verona Primavera |
| 2017-06-26 | €125k | Hellas Verona Primavera |
| 2017-12-21 | €125k | AC Perugia Calcio |
| 2018-06-19 | €100k | AC Prato |
| 2018-12-14 | €150k | FC Südtirol |
| 2019-06-20 | €150k | FC Südtirol |
| 2019-12-30 | €200k | Venezia FC |
| 2020-08-21 | €400k | Venezia FC |
| 2021-02-22 | €500k | Empoli FC |
| 2021-06-24 | €500k | Empoli FC |
| 2021-10-14 | €2M | Hellas Verona |
| 2021-12-28 | €4M | Hellas Verona |
| 2022-03-15 | €6M | Hellas Verona |
| 2022-06-07 | €7.5M | Hellas Verona |
| 2022-11-11 | €9M | SS Lazio |
| 2023-03-21 | €17M | SS Lazio |
| 2023-06-15 | €22M | SS Lazio |
| 2023-12-20 | €20M | SS Lazio |
| 2024-03-12 | €14M | SS Lazio |
| 2024-06-05 | €14M | SS Lazio |
| 2024-10-18 | €8M | Bologna FC 1909 |
| 2024-12-18 | €7M | Bologna FC 1909 |
| 2025-06-17 | €6M | Bologna FC 1909 |
| 2025-12-23 | €5M | Bologna FC 1909 |
| 2026-05-29 | €3.8M | Bologna FC 1909 |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.433
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Serie A507 players · median €5.5M
Valued above 38% of the 507 Serie A players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 65% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Casale appears
- TerminalSerie A in the Player Explorer
- TerminalSerie A on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- BarbieriRBUS Cremonese · Serie A€3.8M
- MeisterCFPisa Sporting Club · Serie A€3.8M
- KolasinacCBAtalanta BC · Serie A€4M
- DjimsitiCBAtalanta BC · Serie A€4M
- TagliaficoLBOlympique Lyon · defenders€4M
- BurnCBNewcastle United · defenders€4M
- SchärCBNewcastle United · defenders€4M
- CarvajalRBReal Madrid · defenders€4M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).