FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Philipp

Sander

DMGermany · Borussia Mönchengladbach

№ 388409Established €4.6M −0.14

Player dossierBundesliga

PhilippSander

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Borussia Mönchengladbach
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Germany
Age
28
Height
186 cm
Foot
Both
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Sander at €4M. Model A, which never saw Sander during training, estimates €4.6M: the market value is 13% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.15. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.14A €4.6M▲ +0.27B €3.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
61
Minutes
4,124
Goals
3
Assists
0
Started
48/61
Min / app
68
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Sander…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €4MModel A €4.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Philipp Sander's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 42nd, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 76th, Starts 68th, Minutes, last 365 days 83rd, European club minutes 30th42ndGoals8thAssists76thMinutes68thStarts83rdRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,627 this player1,541 midfielder median83rd percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,800

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Jul 2018
Peak
€4M
Oct 2024
Model target
€4M
May 2026
Valuations
23
3 club changes
May 2026€4MBorussia MönchengladbachValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €4M, Borussia Mönchengladbach. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-07-03€100kHolstein Kiel
2019-01-08€100kHolstein Kiel
2019-06-12€100kHolstein Kiel
2019-12-13€150kHolstein Kiel
2020-09-11€150kSC Verl
2020-11-11€200kSC Verl
2021-01-20€250kSC Verl
2021-03-26€300kSC Verl
2021-06-14€350kSC Verl
2021-12-15€350kHolstein Kiel
2022-06-16€350kHolstein Kiel
2022-11-30€450kHolstein Kiel
2023-03-31€650kHolstein Kiel
2023-06-28€750kHolstein Kiel
2023-10-20€1.2MHolstein Kiel
2023-12-15€1.7MHolstein Kiel
2024-03-22€2MHolstein Kiel
2024-06-06€3MHolstein Kiel
2024-10-09€4MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2024-12-20€4MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2025-06-05€4MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2025-12-19€4MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2026-05-27€4MBorussia Mönchengladbach

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.137

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 39% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 61% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Sander appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).