FairValue

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Michael

Folorunsho

CMItaly · Cagliari Calcio

№ 377042Established €4.3M +0.15

Player dossierSerie A

MichaelFolorunsho

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Cagliari Calcio
League
Serie A
Nationality
Italy
Age
28
Height
190 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Folorunsho at €5M. Model A, which never saw Folorunsho during training, estimates €4.3M: the market value is 16% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.16. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.15A €4.3M▲ +1.03B €1.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
49
Minutes
2,847
Goals
2
Assists
0
Started
32/49
Min / app
58
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Folorunsho…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €5MModel A €4.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Michael Folorunsho's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 40th, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 55th, Starts 42nd, Minutes, last 365 days 68th, European club minutes 30th40thGoals8thAssists55thMinutes42ndStarts68thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,099 this player1,541 midfielder median68th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,800

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€75k
Nov 2015
Peak
€8.5M
Jun 2024
Model target
€5M
May 2026
Valuations
23
10 club changes
May 2026€5MCagliari CalcioValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €5M, Cagliari Calcio. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-11-30€75kLazio U19
2016-06-09€175kLazio U19
2017-06-26€150kLazio U19
2017-12-20€200kVirtus Francavilla Calcio
2018-06-21€200kVirtus Francavilla Calcio
2018-12-15€250kVirtus Francavilla Calcio
2019-06-21€300kVirtus Francavilla Calcio
2019-12-20€275kSSC Bari
2020-07-24€250kSSC Bari
2021-02-22€900kReggina 1914
2021-06-24€1.5MReggina 1914
2021-12-29€1.8MPordenone Calcio
2022-06-06€1.5MReggina 1914
2022-12-22€2.5MSSC Bari
2023-06-12€2.5MSSC Bari
2023-10-11€4MHellas Verona
2023-12-20€4MHellas Verona
2024-03-12€6MHellas Verona
2024-06-05€8.5MHellas Verona
2024-12-18€7MSSC Napoli
2025-06-17€6MACF Fiorentina
2025-12-23€6MCagliari Calcio
2026-05-29€5MCagliari Calcio

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.146

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 45% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 65% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Folorunsho appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).