RobertIvanov

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club: Asteras Aktor
League: Super League
Nationality: Finland
Age: 31
Height: 197 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ivanov at €500k. Model A, which never saw Ivanov during training, estimates €307k: the market value is 63% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.63. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €441k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 18
Minutes: 1,476
Goals: 1
Assists: 0
Started: 16/18
Min / app: 82
Cards: 6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ivanov…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €500k

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.06 this player0.03 defender median70th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €25k; Mar 2017
Peak: €750k; Mar 2023
Model target: €500k; Jun 2026
Valuations: 25; 3 club changes

Jun 2026€500kAsteras AktorValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €500k, Asteras Aktor. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2017-03-25	€25k	FC Honka
2017-07-08	€25k	FC Honka
2017-10-15	€25k	FC Honka
2018-04-25	€50k	FC Honka
2018-10-23	€150k	FC Honka
2019-04-04	€250k	FC Honka
2019-07-25	€300k	FC Honka
2019-10-20	€300k	FC Honka
2020-05-17	€300k	FC Honka
2020-08-31	€300k	FC Honka
2021-01-19	€250k	Warta Poznan
2021-05-26	€350k	Warta Poznan
2021-12-31	€500k	Warta Poznan
2022-04-07	€600k	Warta Poznan
2022-06-14	€700k	Warta Poznan
2022-09-29	€550k	Warta Poznan
2022-11-16	€650k	Warta Poznan
2023-03-30	€750k	Warta Poznan
2023-06-09	€750k	Warta Poznan
2023-12-15	€750k	Eintracht Braunschweig
2024-06-06	€750k	Eintracht Braunschweig
2024-12-19	€750k	Eintracht Braunschweig
2025-06-19	€600k	Eintracht Braunschweig
2025-12-12	€600k	Asteras Aktor
2026-06-04	€500k	Asteras Aktor

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: +0.488

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 43% of the 356 Super League players.

See them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 19% of the 2,065 defenders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Ivanov appears

TerminalSuper League in the Player Explorer
TerminalSuper League on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).