Leo

Østigård

CBNorway · Genoa CFC

№ 367284Elite €5.3M +0.89

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Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

LeoØstigård

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club: Genoa CFC
League: Serie A
Nationality: Norway
Age: 26
Height: 183 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Østigård at €13M. Model A, which never saw Østigård during training, estimates €5.3M: the market value is 144% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.44. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 58
Minutes: 4,800
Goals: 6
Assists: 1
Started: 55/58
Min / app: 83
Cards: 11Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Østigård…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €13M

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.11 this player0.03 defender median90th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €50k; Dec 2017
Peak: €13M; May 2026
Model target: €13M; May 2026
Valuations: 24; 11 club changes

May 2026€13MGenoa CFCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €13M, Genoa CFC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2017-12-23	€50k	Molde FK II
2019-05-23	€150k	Brighton & Hove Albion
2019-09-25	€300k	FC St. Pauli
2019-12-13	€900k	FC St. Pauli
2020-04-02	€2M	FC St. Pauli
2020-04-08	€1.8M	FC St. Pauli
2020-07-15	€2.5M	Brighton & Hove Albion
2020-10-15	€2.5M	Coventry City
2021-03-10	€2.2M	Coventry City
2021-06-08	€3M	Brighton & Hove Albion
2021-11-24	€3M	Stoke City
2022-03-15	€4M	Genoa CFC
2022-06-07	€5M	Genoa CFC
2022-11-11	€7M	SSC Napoli
2023-06-15	€7M	SSC Napoli
2023-10-11	€10M	SSC Napoli
2023-12-20	€10M	SSC Napoli
2024-03-12	€8M	SSC Napoli
2024-06-05	€8M	SSC Napoli
2024-12-10	€7M	Stade Rennais FC
2025-06-05	€10M	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2025-10-07	€8.5M	Genoa CFC
2025-12-23	€10M	Genoa CFC
2026-05-29	€13M	Genoa CFC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: +0.891

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 72% of the 507 Serie A players.

See them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 86% of the 2,065 defenders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Østigård appears

TerminalSerie A in the Player Explorer
TerminalSerie A on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).