FairValue

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Portrait of Ozan Kabak

Ozan

Kabak

CBTürkiye · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim

№ 361260Elite €6.3M +0.86

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierBundesliga

OzanKabak

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Türkiye
Age
26
Height
187 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Kabak at €15M. Model A, which never saw Kabak during training, estimates €6.3M: the market value is 137% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.37. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.86A €6.3M▲ +2.47B €1.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
26
Minutes
1,780
Goals
4
Assists
0
Started
18/26
Min / app
68
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kabak…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €15M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €15MModel A €6.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Ozan Kabak's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 98th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 28th, Starts 26th, Minutes, last 365 days 53rd, European club minutes 30th98thGoals17thAssists28thMinutes26thStarts53rdRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.20 this player0.03 defender median98th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Jul 2017
Peak
€32M
Mar 2020
Model target
€15M
May 2026
Valuations
27
6 club changes
May 2026€15MTSG 1899 HoffenheimValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €15M, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-07-04€100kGalatasaray U21
2018-06-30€150kGalatasaray U21
2018-10-11€500kGalatasaray
2019-01-04€6.5MGalatasaray
2019-03-06€10MVfB Stuttgart
2019-06-05€15MVfB Stuttgart
2019-12-17€22MFC Schalke 04
2020-03-11€32MFC Schalke 04
2020-04-08€29MFC Schalke 04
2020-11-26€25MFC Schalke 04
2021-03-18€25MLiverpool FC
2021-05-25€25MLiverpool FC
2021-10-05€17MNorwich City
2021-12-23€15MNorwich City
2022-03-29€13MNorwich City
2022-06-15€10MNorwich City
2022-11-09€10MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2023-06-22€10MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2023-10-18€13MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2023-12-14€13MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2024-03-27€10MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2024-05-29€10MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2024-12-20€7.5MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2025-06-05€5MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2025-12-19€5MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2026-03-20€10MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2026-05-27€15MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.863

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 74% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€15MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 87% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€15MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Kabak appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).