FairValue

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Jeff

Chabot

CBGermany · VfB Stuttgart

№ 303219Elite €20.7M −0.32

Player dossierBundesliga

JeffChabot

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
VfB Stuttgart
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Germany
Age
28
Height
195 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Chabot at €15M. Model A, which never saw Chabot during training, estimates €20.7M: the market value is 28% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.38. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €17.6M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.32A €20.7M▼ −0.16B €17.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
85
Minutes
6,797
Goals
3
Assists
1
Started
78/85
Min / app
80
Cards
20Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Chabot…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €15M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €15MModel A €20.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Jeff Chabot's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 56th, Assists per 90 34th, Minutes, two years 97th, Starts 75th, Minutes, last 365 days 95th, European club minutes 84th56thGoals34thAssists97thMinutes75thStarts95thRecent84thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

6,797 this player2,860 defender median97th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Jul 2017
Peak
€15M
Oct 2025
Model target
€15M
May 2026
Valuations
27
6 club changes
May 2026€15MVfB StuttgartValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €15M, VfB Stuttgart. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-07-01€200kSparta Rotterdam
2018-01-17€200kSparta Rotterdam
2018-03-27€600kSparta Rotterdam
2018-06-12€500kSparta Rotterdam
2018-10-04€900kFC Groningen
2018-12-28€1.3MFC Groningen
2019-03-13€2MFC Groningen
2019-06-12€3.5MFC Groningen
2019-12-12€3.5MUC Sampdoria
2020-04-08€3.2MUC Sampdoria
2020-08-25€3.1MUC Sampdoria
2020-12-29€3.5MSpezia Calcio
2021-06-03€3MSpezia Calcio
2021-12-28€2.8MUC Sampdoria
2022-06-09€2M1.FC Köln
2022-11-09€2M1.FC Köln
2023-03-29€3.5M1.FC Köln
2023-06-22€5.5M1.FC Köln
2023-10-18€7.5M1.FC Köln
2023-12-14€9M1.FC Köln
2024-05-29€9M1.FC Köln
2024-10-09€12MVfB Stuttgart
2024-12-20€12MVfB Stuttgart
2025-06-05€12MVfB Stuttgart
2025-10-14€15MVfB Stuttgart
2025-12-19€15MVfB Stuttgart
2026-05-27€15MVfB Stuttgart

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.324

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 74% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€15MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 87% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€15MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Chabot appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).