Lucas
Chaves
GKArgentina · Panathinaikos
Player dossierSuper League
LucasChaves
GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper
- Club
- Panathinaikos
- League
- Super League
- Nationality
- Argentina
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 182 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 4 Jun 2026
Super LeagueReading the valuation
The market values Chaves at €900k. Model A, which never saw Chaves during training, estimates €719k: the market value is 25% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.25. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €517k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 42
- Minutes
- 3,780
- Started
- 42/42
- Min / app
- 90
- Cards
- 3Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Chaves…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €900k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers
Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)
Minutes, two years
Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.
3,780 this player2,790 goalkeeper median66th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Jul 2015
- Peak
- €4M
- Oct 2022
- Model target
- €900k
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 23
- 3 club changes
Jun 2026: €900k, Panathinaikos. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2015-07-14 | €50k | AA Argentinos Juniors |
| 2016-02-06 | €50k | AA Argentinos Juniors |
| 2016-08-08 | €50k | AA Argentinos Juniors |
| 2017-10-09 | €250k | AA Argentinos Juniors |
| 2018-05-08 | €1M | AA Argentinos Juniors |
| 2018-12-18 | €800k | AA Argentinos Juniors |
| 2019-08-06 | €1.3M | AA Argentinos Juniors |
| 2019-12-05 | €3M | AA Argentinos Juniors |
| 2020-04-08 | €2.4M | AA Argentinos Juniors |
| 2021-02-08 | €2.8M | AA Argentinos Juniors |
| 2021-10-20 | €3.5M | AA Argentinos Juniors |
| 2022-05-24 | €3M | AA Argentinos Juniors |
| 2022-09-06 | €3.5M | CA Huracán |
| 2022-10-26 | €4M | CA Huracán |
| 2023-07-04 | €3.8M | CA Huracán |
| 2023-12-19 | €3.8M | CA Huracán |
| 2024-03-06 | €1.8M | Panetolikos |
| 2024-05-30 | €1.2M | Panetolikos |
| 2024-12-18 | €1.2M | Panetolikos |
| 2025-05-23 | €1.2M | Panetolikos |
| 2025-12-12 | €1M | Panetolikos |
| 2026-03-06 | €900k | Panathinaikos |
| 2026-06-04 | €900k | Panathinaikos |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.224
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Super League356 players · median €600k
Valued above 66% of the 356 Super League players.
See them in the Explorer →Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M
Valued above 45% of the 485 goalkeepers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Chaves appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- SundbergCBAris Thessaloniki · Super League€900k
- GalanopoulosCMAris Thessaloniki · Super League€900k
- TsingarasCMAtromitos Athens · Super League€900k
- MisehouyAMAris Thessaloniki · Super League€900k
- LopesGKFC Nantes · goalkeepers€900k
- TerraccianoGKAC Milan · goalkeepers€900k
- CrombruggeGKKRC Genk · goalkeepers€900k
- DiawGKLe Havre AC · goalkeepers€900k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).