FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Noah Sonko

Sundberg

CBThe Gambia · Aris Thessaloniki

№ 249121Emerging €720k +0.22

Player dossierSuper League

Noah SonkoSundberg

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Aris Thessaloniki
League
Super League
Nationality
The Gambia
Age
29
Height
187 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Sundberg at €900k. Model A, which never saw Sundberg during training, estimates €720k: the market value is 25% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.25. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €759k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.22A €720k▲ +0.17B €759k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
41
Minutes
3,413
Goals
3
Assists
2
Started
38/41
Min / app
83
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Sundberg…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €900k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €900kModel A €720k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Noah Sonko Sundberg's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 79th, Assists per 90 58th, Minutes, two years 61st, Starts 78th, Minutes, last 365 days 32nd, European club minutes 63rd79thGoals58thAssists61stMinutes78thStarts32ndRecent63rdEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.08 this player0.03 defender median79th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€75k
Jun 2014
Peak
€2M
Jun 2023
Model target
€900k
Jun 2026
Valuations
31
8 club changes
Jun 2026€900kAris ThessalonikiValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €900k, Aris Thessaloniki. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-06-26€75kAIK
2015-04-11€150kAIK
2015-06-14€400kAIK
2015-11-29€400kAIK
2016-06-17€500kGIF Sundsvall
2016-12-11€500kAIK
2017-06-20€600kGIF Sundsvall
2017-11-17€600kGIF Sundsvall
2018-06-20€350kÖstersunds FK
2019-01-16€700kÖstersunds FK
2019-06-28€800kÖstersunds FK
2019-11-20€700kÖstersunds FK
2020-04-08€550kÖstersunds FK
2020-08-05€600kÖstersunds FK
2020-12-10€600kÖstersunds FK
2021-06-09€600kÖstersunds FK
2021-12-17€500kÖstersunds FK
2022-04-05€600kLevski Sofia
2022-05-31€800kLevski Sofia
2022-09-07€1MLevski Sofia
2022-11-28€1.3MLevski Sofia
2023-03-03€1.5MLevski Sofia
2023-06-05€2MLevski Sofia
2023-12-20€1.8MLudogorets Razgrad
2024-06-03€1.5MLudogorets Razgrad
2024-10-04€1.5MSivasspor
2024-12-23€1.5MSivasspor
2025-03-20€1.3MSivasspor
2025-06-18€1.1MSivasspor
2025-12-12€900kAris Thessaloniki
2026-06-04€900kAris Thessaloniki

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.224

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 66% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€900kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 33% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€900kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Sundberg appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).