FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Sandro

Kulenović

CFCroatia · Torino FC

№ 357778Established €6M −0.54

Player dossierSerie A

SandroKulenović

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Torino FC
League
Serie A
Nationality
Croatia
Age
26
Height
191 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Kulenović at €3.5M. Model A, which never saw Kulenović during training, estimates €6M: the market value is 42% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.71. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.2M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.54A €6M▼ −0.18B €4.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
31
Minutes
1,240
Goals
7
Assists
2
Started
12/31
Min / app
40
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kulenović…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3.5MModel A €6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Sandro Kulenović's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 89th, Assists per 90 50th, Minutes, two years 25th, Starts 19th, Minutes, last 365 days 21st, European club minutes 100th89thGoals50thAssists25thMinutes19thStarts21stRecent100thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

69% this player0% attacker median100th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Jan 2017
Peak
€4M
Dec 2024
Model target
€3.5M
May 2026
Valuations
22
5 club changes
May 2026€3.5MTorino FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €3.5M, Torino FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-01-21€100kLegia Warszawa
2017-07-05€100kLegia Warszawa
2018-06-30€100kLegia Warszawa
2019-01-25€500kLegia Warszawa
2019-06-29€650kLegia Warszawa
2019-09-16€1.6MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2019-12-27€1.5MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2020-04-08€1.3MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2020-07-27€750kGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2020-12-28€850kHNK Rijeka
2021-06-10€1MHNK Rijeka
2021-12-30€1.2MNK Lokomotiva Zagreb
2022-03-22€1.5MNK Lokomotiva Zagreb
2022-06-06€2MNK Lokomotiva Zagreb
2022-11-08€2MNK Lokomotiva Zagreb
2023-06-06€2MNK Lokomotiva Zagreb
2023-12-18€1.5MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2024-06-04€2MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2024-12-23€4MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2025-06-09€4MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2025-12-22€4MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2026-05-29€3.5MTorino FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.537

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 34% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€3.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 56% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€3.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Kulenović appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).