FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Jordan

CFUnited States · CD Tondela

№ 355369Emerging €503k +1.09

Player dossierLiga Portugal

Jordan

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
CD Tondela
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
United States
Age
30
Height
191 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Jordan at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Jordan during training, estimates €503k: the market value is 198% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.98. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €860k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +1.09A €503k▲ +0.56B €860k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
50
Minutes
2,718
Goals
2
Assists
1
Started
32/50
Min / app
54
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Jordan…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.5MModel A €503k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Jordan's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 9th, Assists per 90 12th, Minutes, two years 61st, Starts 58th, Minutes, last 365 days 48th, European club minutes 28th9thGoals12thAssists61stMinutes58thStarts48thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

2,718 this player2,242 attacker median61st percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●8,788

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€250k
Sept 2015
Peak
€10M
Sept 2022
Model target
€1.5M
May 2026
Valuations
27
9 club changes
May 2026€1.5MCD TondelaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.5M, CD Tondela. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-09-15€250kStade Reims
2016-02-04€1.3MStade Reims
2016-07-13€1.3MStade Reims
2017-02-20€850kLB Châteauroux
2017-06-20€850kLB Châteauroux
2018-05-16€2.5MStade Reims
2018-09-06€7MStade Rennais FC
2018-12-17€7MStade Rennais FC
2019-06-03€6MStade Rennais FC
2019-12-19€4.5MStade Rennais FC
2020-04-08€3.5MStade Rennais FC
2020-12-28€3.5MBSC Young Boys
2021-04-15€4.5MBSC Young Boys
2021-06-23€5MBSC Young Boys
2022-01-03€5MBSC Young Boys
2022-06-08€7MBSC Young Boys
2022-09-21€10M1.FC Union Berlin
2022-11-09€10M1.FC Union Berlin
2023-03-29€9M1.FC Union Berlin
2023-06-22€7M1.FC Union Berlin
2023-10-18€6MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2023-12-14€6MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2024-05-29€4MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2024-12-20€3M1.FC Union Berlin
2025-06-03€3MStade Reims
2025-12-18€2MCD Tondela
2026-05-28€1.5MCD Tondela

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+1.093

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 53% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 37% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Jordan appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).