FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Robert

Ljubicic

CMCroatia · AEK Athens

№ 353634Established €4.7M −0.46

Player dossierSuper League

RobertLjubicic

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
AEK Athens
League
Super League
Nationality
Croatia
Age
26
Height
178 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ljubicic at €3M. Model A, which never saw Ljubicic during training, estimates €4.7M: the market value is 37% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.58. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.5M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.46A €4.7M▼ −0.41B €4.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
52
Minutes
2,701
Goals
7
Assists
7
Started
32/52
Min / app
52
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ljubicic…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €4.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Robert Ljubicic's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 87th, Assists per 90 90th, Minutes, two years 52nd, Starts 36th, Minutes, last 365 days 34th, European club minutes 87th87thGoals90thAssists52ndMinutes36thStarts34thRecent87thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.23 this player0.09 midfielder median90th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€400k
Jun 2018
Peak
€4M
Mar 2024
Model target
€3M
Jun 2026
Valuations
21
3 club changes
Jun 2026€3MAEK AthensValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €3M, AEK Athens. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-06-14€400kSKN St. Pölten
2018-12-19€550kSKN St. Pölten
2019-06-03€600kSKN St. Pölten
2019-12-16€700kSKN St. Pölten
2020-04-08€625kSKN St. Pölten
2020-07-22€1MSKN St. Pölten
2020-12-21€1MSKN St. Pölten
2021-06-02€900kSKN St. Pölten
2021-09-06€1.3MRapid Vienna
2021-12-16€1.5MRapid Vienna
2022-05-27€2.5MRapid Vienna
2022-11-08€3.5MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2023-06-06€3.5MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2023-12-18€3MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2024-03-06€4MAEK Athens
2024-05-30€4MAEK Athens
2024-12-18€4MAEK Athens
2025-05-23€4MAEK Athens
2025-12-12€3.5MAEK Athens
2026-03-06€3MAEK Athens
2026-06-04€3MAEK Athens

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.459

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 86% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 56% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ljubicic appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).