FairValue

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Portrait of Guido Rodríguez

Guido

Rodríguez

DMArgentina · Valencia CF

№ 342385Established €1.5M +1.01

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLaLiga

GuidoRodríguez

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Valencia CF
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Argentina
Age
32
Height
185 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Rodríguez at €4M. Model A, which never saw Rodríguez during training, estimates €1.5M: the market value is 175% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.75. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €915k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +1.01A €1.5M▲ +1.47B €915k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
49
Minutes
2,766
Goals
4
Assists
1
Started
33/49
Min / app
56
Cards
11Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Rodríguez…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €4MModel A €1.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Guido Rodríguez's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 66th, Assists per 90 21st, Minutes, two years 53rd, Starts 46th, Minutes, last 365 days 52nd, European club minutes 30th66thGoals21stAssists53rdMinutes46thStarts52ndRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.13 this player0.08 midfielder median66th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Jan 2015
Peak
€28M
Nov 2022
Model target
€4M
Jun 2026
Valuations
30
6 club changes
Jun 2026€4MValencia CFValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €4M, Valencia CF. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-01-10€300kCA River Plate
2015-07-14€750kCA River Plate
2016-02-06€1.3MDefensa y Justicia
2016-08-04€1.8MClub Tijuana
2016-12-16€2.5MClub Tijuana
2017-07-31€4.5MCF América
2018-04-10€5.5MCF América
2018-08-23€7.5MCF América
2019-02-08€10MCF América
2019-08-13€10MCF América
2020-01-10€10MCF América
2020-04-08€8MReal Betis Balompié
2020-10-08€10MReal Betis Balompié
2020-11-23€12MReal Betis Balompié
2021-01-05€15MReal Betis Balompié
2021-03-19€18MReal Betis Balompié
2021-06-10€22MReal Betis Balompié
2021-12-30€25MReal Betis Balompié
2022-06-03€25MReal Betis Balompié
2022-11-07€28MReal Betis Balompié
2023-06-13€28MReal Betis Balompié
2023-12-22€24MReal Betis Balompié
2024-06-07€20MReal Betis Balompié
2024-12-16€15MWest Ham United
2025-03-18€12MWest Ham United
2025-05-30€10MWest Ham United
2025-10-17€8MWest Ham United
2025-12-09€6MWest Ham United
2026-03-16€5MValencia CF
2026-06-05€4MValencia CF

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+1.010

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 50% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 61% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Rodríguez appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).