FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Rafa

Mir

CFSpain · Elche CF

№ 361254Established €3.6M +0.10

Player dossierLaLiga

RafaMir

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Elche CF
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
28
Height
191 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Mir at €4M. Model A, which never saw Mir during training, estimates €3.6M: the market value is 11% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.11. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.10A €3.6M▲ +1.26B €1.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
51
Minutes
2,671
Goals
10
Assists
2
Started
27/51
Min / app
52
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Mir…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €4MModel A €3.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Rafa Mir's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 65th, Assists per 90 20th, Minutes, two years 60th, Starts 40th, Minutes, last 365 days 70th, European club minutes 28th65thGoals20thAssists60thMinutes40thStarts70thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

1,901 this player1,301 attacker median70th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,703

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Aug 2016
Peak
€16M
Oct 2021
Model target
€4M
Jun 2026
Valuations
34
6 club changes
Jun 2026€4MElche CFValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €4M, Elche CF. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-08-01€300kValencia Mestalla
2016-10-27€400kValencia Mestalla
2017-02-02€500kValencia Mestalla
2017-06-29€500kValencia Mestalla
2018-01-01€1MValencia Mestalla
2018-02-27€1.5MWolverhampton Wanderers
2018-09-18€1.5MUD Las Palmas
2018-10-31€5MUD Las Palmas
2019-02-19€3MUD Las Palmas
2019-06-29€3MUD Las Palmas
2020-02-11€3MSD Huesca
2020-04-08€2.4MSD Huesca
2020-07-23€5MSD Huesca
2020-10-08€5MSD Huesca
2020-11-23€6MSD Huesca
2021-01-05€5.5MSD Huesca
2021-03-19€6MSD Huesca
2021-06-10€12MSD Huesca
2021-10-13€16MSevilla FC
2021-12-30€16MSevilla FC
2022-06-03€16MSevilla FC
2022-11-07€12MSevilla FC
2023-03-23€10MSevilla FC
2023-06-13€10MSevilla FC
2023-10-13€6MSevilla FC
2023-12-22€5MSevilla FC
2024-03-21€3.5MSevilla FC
2024-06-07€2.5MSevilla FC
2024-10-11€1MValencia CF
2024-12-27€800kValencia CF
2025-06-09€800kValencia CF
2025-10-02€2MElche CF
2025-12-12€4MElche CF
2026-06-05€4MElche CF

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.104

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 50% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 59% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Mir appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).