FairValue

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Irvin

Cardona

RWMalta · AS Saint-Étienne

№ 342226Established €3M −0.20

Player dossierLigue 1

IrvinCardona

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
AS Saint-Étienne
League
Ligue 1
Nationality
Malta
Age
28
Height
185 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Cardona at €2.5M. Model A, which never saw Cardona during training, estimates €3M: the market value is 18% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.22. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.3M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.20A €3M▲ +0.10B €2.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
33
Minutes
1,767
Goals
7
Assists
6
Started
19/33
Min / app
54
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Cardona…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2.5MModel A €3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Irvin Cardona's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 68th, Assists per 90 91st, Minutes, two years 38th, Starts 48th, Minutes, last 365 days 1st, European club minutes 28th68thGoals91stAssists38thMinutes48thStarts1stRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.31 this player0.15 attacker median91st percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€250k
Jul 2017
Peak
€8M
Jan 2021
Model target
€2.5M
May 2026
Valuations
25
5 club changes
May 2026€2.5MAS Saint-ÉtienneValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €2.5M, AS Saint-Étienne. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-07-25€250kCercle Brugge
2017-10-25€400kCercle Brugge
2018-04-05€1MCercle Brugge
2018-12-27€1.5MCercle Brugge
2019-06-10€1.5MCercle Brugge
2019-12-19€3.5MStade Brestois 29
2020-03-13€6MStade Brestois 29
2020-04-08€4.8MStade Brestois 29
2020-08-03€6MStade Brestois 29
2020-10-15€7MStade Brestois 29
2021-01-07€8MStade Brestois 29
2021-06-04€7MStade Brestois 29
2021-12-16€6MStade Brestois 29
2022-03-23€5MStade Brestois 29
2022-05-30€4.5MStade Brestois 29
2022-09-19€3MStade Brestois 29
2022-11-02€2.5MStade Brestois 29
2023-06-22€2.5MFC Augsburg
2023-12-14€1.5MFC Augsburg
2024-03-26€1.8MAS Saint-Étienne
2024-06-11€2.5MAS Saint-Étienne
2024-12-27€2MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2025-06-03€2.5MAS Saint-Étienne
2025-12-11€2.5MAS Saint-Étienne
2026-05-26€2.5MAS Saint-Étienne

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.196

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 24% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 48% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Cardona appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).