FairValue

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Jonathan

Gradit

CBFrance · RC Lens

№ 126557Established €1.8M +0.35

Player dossierLigue 1

JonathanGradit

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
RC Lens
League
Ligue 1
Nationality
France
Age
33
Height
180 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Gradit at €2.5M. Model A, which never saw Gradit during training, estimates €1.8M: the market value is 42% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.42. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €505k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.35A €1.8M▲ +1.60B €505k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
37
Minutes
3,102
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
36/37
Min / app
84
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Gradit…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2.5MModel A €1.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Jonathan Gradit's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 54th, Starts 91st, Minutes, last 365 days 22nd, European club minutes 67th18thGoals17thAssists54thMinutes91stStarts22ndRecent67thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

97% this player83% defender median91st percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Nov 2014
Peak
€5M
Jun 2023
Model target
€2.5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
28
2 club changes
Jun 2026€2.5MRC LensValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €2.5M, RC Lens. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-11-20€300kTours FC
2015-06-06€400kTours FC
2016-02-04€400kTours FC
2016-07-13€600kTours FC
2017-03-20€600kTours FC
2017-06-15€800kTours FC
2018-05-16€500kTours FC
2018-09-06€500kSM Caen
2018-10-24€750kSM Caen
2018-12-17€1.3MSM Caen
2019-06-03€2MSM Caen
2019-09-30€1.5MRC Lens
2020-01-06€1.5MRC Lens
2020-04-08€1.2MRC Lens
2020-10-15€1.8MRC Lens
2021-01-07€2.5MRC Lens
2021-04-09€3MRC Lens
2021-06-04€3MRC Lens
2021-12-16€4MRC Lens
2022-05-30€4.5MRC Lens
2022-11-02€4.5MRC Lens
2023-06-27€5MRC Lens
2023-12-18€5MRC Lens
2024-06-03€4.5MRC Lens
2024-12-10€4MRC Lens
2025-06-03€4MRC Lens
2025-12-15€3MRC Lens
2026-06-01€2.5MRC Lens

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.352

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 24% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 54% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Gradit appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).