FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Diego

Conde

GKSpain · Villarreal CF

№ 341713Established €3.6M −0.17

Player dossierLaLiga

DiegoConde

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Villarreal CF
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
27
Height
188 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Conde at €3M. Model A, which never saw Conde during training, estimates €3.6M: the market value is 16% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.19. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.17A €3.6M▲ +1.07B €1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
23
Minutes
2,053
Started
23/23
Min / app
89
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Conde…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €3.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Diego Conde's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 39th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 6th, European club minutes 32nd39thMinutes62ndStarts6thRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile

70%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Aug 2017
Peak
€10M
Dec 2024
Model target
€3M
Jun 2026
Valuations
24
6 club changes
Jun 2026€3MVillarreal CFValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €3M, Villarreal CF. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-08-17€50kAtlético Madrileño
2018-01-01€50kAtlético Madrileño
2018-05-30€50kAtlético Madrileño
2019-02-19€150kCDA Navalcarnero
2019-06-29€150kCDA Navalcarnero
2019-09-10€150kAtlético Madrileño
2020-02-11€200kAtlético Madrileño
2020-10-08€400kCD Leganés
2021-01-08€400kCD Leganés
2021-06-24€300kCD Leganés
2021-12-30€300kGetafe CF
2022-06-03€300kGetafe CF
2022-11-07€300kGetafe CF
2023-06-13€300kGetafe CF
2023-10-13€500kCD Leganés
2023-12-20€800kCD Leganés
2024-03-26€1.6MCD Leganés
2024-06-24€2MCD Leganés
2024-10-11€5MVillarreal CF
2024-12-27€10MVillarreal CF
2025-06-09€7.5MVillarreal CF
2025-10-02€5MVillarreal CF
2025-12-12€4MVillarreal CF
2026-06-05€3MVillarreal CF

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.174

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 40% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 68% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Conde appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).