FairValue

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Kerim

Alıcı

RBTürkiye · Hatayspor

№ 341646Emerging €373k −0.62

Player dossierSüper Lig

KerimAlıcı

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Hatayspor
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Türkiye
Age
28
Height
183 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Alıcı at €200k. Model A, which never saw Alıcı during training, estimates €373k: the market value is 46% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.87. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €637k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.62A €373k▼ −1.16B €637k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
32
Minutes
1,611
Goals
1
Assists
1
Started
19/32
Min / app
50
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Alıcı…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €200k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €200kModel A €373k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Kerim Alıcı's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 67th, Assists per 90 60th, Minutes, two years 25th, Starts 15th, Minutes, last 365 days 21st, European club minutes 30th67thGoals60thAssists25thMinutes15thStarts21stRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.06 this player0.03 defender median67th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jan 2015
Peak
€600k
Jun 2019
Model target
€200k
Dec 2025
Valuations
34
7 club changes
Dec 2025€200kHataysporValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €200k, Hatayspor. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-01-05€50kAltinordu FK Youth
2015-06-01€100kAltinordu FK Youth
2016-01-04€100kAltinordu FK U21
2016-07-14€100kAltinordu FK
2017-01-09€150kAltinordu FK
2017-06-30€200kAltinordu FK
2018-02-05€200kAltinordu FK
2018-05-30€200kAltinordu FK
2019-01-07€400kAltinordu FK
2019-06-17€600kAltinordu FK
2020-02-04€600kAltinordu FK
2020-04-08€475kAltinordu FK
2020-08-27€500kAltinordu FK
2020-12-30€450kBoluspor
2021-03-16€400kGöztepe
2021-05-21€400kGöztepe
2021-10-12€500kGöztepe
2022-01-04€500kGöztepe
2022-03-31€550kGöztepe
2022-06-01€550kGöztepe
2022-09-13€375kHatayspor
2022-10-27€450kHatayspor
2023-03-14€300kAltinordu FK
2023-04-03€250kAltinordu FK
2023-06-23€250kAltinordu FK
2023-09-27€250kHatayspor
2023-12-21€300kHatayspor
2024-03-15€300kHatayspor
2024-05-31€250kHatayspor
2024-10-04€200kHatayspor
2024-12-23€200kHatayspor
2025-03-20€200kHatayspor
2025-06-18€200kHatayspor
2025-12-29€200kHatayspor

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.624

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 6% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€200kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 5% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€200kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Alıcı appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).