FairValue

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Fran

García

LBSpain · Real Madrid

№ 341264Elite €22M −0.79

Player dossierLaLiga

FranGarcía

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Real Madrid
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
26
Height
169 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values García at €10M. Model A, which never saw García during training, estimates €22M: the market value is 54% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.20. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €15.1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.79A €22M▼ −0.41B €15.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
76
Minutes
4,761
Goals
2
Assists
6
Started
48/76
Min / app
63
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for García…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €10MModel A €22M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Fran García's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 55th, Assists per 90 81st, Minutes, two years 80th, Starts 18th, Minutes, last 365 days 58th, European club minutes 87th55thGoals81stAssists80thMinutes18thStarts58thRecent87thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

22% this player0% defender median87th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Nov 2018
Peak
€18M
Jun 2025
Model target
€10M
Jun 2026
Valuations
23
2 club changes
Jun 2026€10MReal MadridValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €10M, Real Madrid. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-11-23€150kReal Madrid Castilla
2019-02-19€200kReal Madrid Castilla
2019-06-29€250kReal Madrid Castilla
2019-09-10€250kReal Madrid Castilla
2020-02-11€250kReal Madrid Castilla
2020-10-08€300kRayo Vallecano
2020-11-23€800kRayo Vallecano
2021-01-08€1.5MRayo Vallecano
2021-06-24€3MRayo Vallecano
2021-12-30€3.5MRayo Vallecano
2022-03-21€5MRayo Vallecano
2022-06-03€7.5MRayo Vallecano
2022-11-07€8MRayo Vallecano
2023-03-23€10MRayo Vallecano
2023-06-13€12MRayo Vallecano
2023-10-13€15MReal Madrid
2023-12-22€15MReal Madrid
2024-06-07€15MReal Madrid
2024-12-27€15MReal Madrid
2025-06-09€18MReal Madrid
2025-12-12€15MReal Madrid
2026-03-16€12MReal Madrid
2026-06-05€10MReal Madrid

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.787

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 73% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 81% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Where García appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).