FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Federico Chiesa

Federico

Chiesa

RWItaly · Liverpool FC

№ 341092Elite €8.4M +0.44

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

FedericoChiesa

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Liverpool FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Italy
Age
28
Height
175 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Chiesa at €13M. Model A, which never saw Chiesa during training, estimates €8.4M: the market value is 55% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.55. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.44A €8.4M▲ +1.42B €3.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
47
Minutes
1,072
Goals
4
Assists
4
Started
8/47
Min / app
23
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Chiesa…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €13M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €13MModel A €8.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Federico Chiesa's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 64th, Assists per 90 94th, Minutes, two years 21st, Starts 2nd, Minutes, last 365 days 25th, European club minutes 80th64thGoals94thAssists21stMinutes2ndStarts25thRecent80thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.34 this player0.15 attacker median94th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Sept 2014
Peak
€70M
Jul 2021
Model target
€13M
Jun 2026
Valuations
38
3 club changes
Jun 2026€13MLiverpool FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €13M, Liverpool FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-09-23€50kFiorentina Primavera
2015-06-17€50kFiorentina Primavera
2015-11-25€75kFiorentina Primavera
2016-06-07€100kFiorentina Primavera
2016-10-14€500kACF Fiorentina
2017-01-02€2MACF Fiorentina
2017-03-28€8MACF Fiorentina
2017-06-08€10MACF Fiorentina
2017-10-13€17MACF Fiorentina
2017-12-29€35MACF Fiorentina
2018-06-07€45MACF Fiorentina
2018-10-12€50MACF Fiorentina
2018-12-20€50MACF Fiorentina
2019-06-06€60MACF Fiorentina
2019-12-12€60MACF Fiorentina
2020-04-08€48MACF Fiorentina
2020-08-25€48MACF Fiorentina
2020-12-29€48MJuventus FC
2021-03-23€60MJuventus FC
2021-05-25€60MJuventus FC
2021-07-15€70MJuventus FC
2021-12-28€70MJuventus FC
2022-06-07€65MJuventus FC
2022-11-11€60MJuventus FC
2023-03-21€50MJuventus FC
2023-06-15€40MJuventus FC
2023-10-11€45MJuventus FC
2023-12-20€50MJuventus FC
2024-03-12€40MJuventus FC
2024-06-05€35MJuventus FC
2024-10-01€30MLiverpool FC
2024-12-16€22MLiverpool FC
2025-03-18€18MLiverpool FC
2025-05-30€14MLiverpool FC
2025-10-17€18MLiverpool FC
2025-12-09€18MLiverpool FC
2026-03-09€15MLiverpool FC
2026-06-03€13MLiverpool FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.437

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 40% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€13MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 81% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€13MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Chiesa appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).