FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of El Bilal Touré

El Bilal

Touré

LWMali · Besiktas JK

№ 649016Elite €6.6M +0.68

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSüper Lig

El BilalTouré

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
Besiktas JK
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Mali
Age
24
Height
185 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Touré at €13M. Model A, which never saw Touré during training, estimates €6.6M: the market value is 98% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.98. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €8.1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.68A €6.6M▲ +0.47B €8.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
42
Minutes
2,174
Goals
8
Assists
6
Started
23/42
Min / app
52
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Touré…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €13M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €13MModel A €6.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

El Bilal Touré's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 63rd, Assists per 90 82nd, Minutes, two years 49th, Starts 43rd, Minutes, last 365 days 62nd, European club minutes 66th63rdGoals82ndAssists49thMinutes43rdStarts62ndRecent66thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.25 this player0.15 attacker median82nd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
May 2019
Peak
€20M
Oct 2023
Model target
€13M
May 2026
Valuations
20
5 club changes
May 2026€13MBesiktas JKValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €13M, Besiktas JK. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-05-23€150kAfrique Football Elite
2020-03-13€2.5MStade Reims
2020-04-08€2.3MStade Reims
2020-08-03€3.5MStade Reims
2020-10-15€11MStade Reims
2021-01-07€8.5MStade Reims
2021-06-04€8MStade Reims
2021-10-08€6.5MStade Reims
2021-12-16€6MStade Reims
2022-05-30€6.5MStade Reims
2022-11-07€10MUD Almería
2023-06-13€12MUD Almería
2023-10-11€20MAtalanta BC
2023-12-20€20MAtalanta BC
2024-06-05€20MAtalanta BC
2024-12-20€20MVfB Stuttgart
2025-03-27€17MVfB Stuttgart
2025-06-05€15MVfB Stuttgart
2025-12-17€15MBesiktas JK
2026-05-21€13MBesiktas JK

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.681

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 94% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€13MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 81% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€13MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Touré appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).