FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Tete

Morente

LWSpain · Elche CF

№ 339816Emerging €4.1M −0.82

Player dossierLaLiga

TeteMorente

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
Elche CF
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
29
Height
184 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Morente at €1.8M. Model A, which never saw Morente during training, estimates €4.1M: the market value is 56% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.28. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.8M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.82A €4.1M▼ −0.75B €3.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
63
Minutes
3,972
Goals
4
Assists
4
Started
45/63
Min / app
63
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Morente…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.8MModel A €4.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Tete Morente's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 12th, Assists per 90 28th, Minutes, two years 81st, Starts 70th, Minutes, last 365 days 69th, European club minutes 28th12thGoals28thAssists81stMinutes70thStarts69thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

3,972 this player2,242 attacker median81st percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●8,788

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Sept 2016
Peak
€3M
Jun 2022
Model target
€1.8M
Jun 2026
Valuations
25
6 club changes
Jun 2026€1.8MElche CFValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.8M, Elche CF. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-09-04€100kCD Atlético Baleares
2016-10-27€200kCD Atlético Baleares
2017-02-02€200kCD Atlético Baleares
2017-08-17€200kGimnàstic de Tarragona
2018-01-01€300kGimnàstic de Tarragona
2018-05-30€300kGimnàstic de Tarragona
2018-09-17€500kGimnàstic de Tarragona
2019-02-19€500kCD Lugo
2019-06-29€500kCD Lugo
2019-12-20€500kCD Lugo
2020-04-08€400kMálaga CF
2020-10-08€500kElche CF
2020-11-23€1MElche CF
2021-01-05€1.5MElche CF
2021-06-10€1.5MElche CF
2021-12-30€1.5MElche CF
2022-06-03€3MElche CF
2022-11-07€2.5MElche CF
2023-06-13€2.5MElche CF
2023-12-20€2.5MElche CF
2024-06-24€2.5MElche CF
2024-12-18€2MUS Lecce
2025-06-17€2MUS Lecce
2025-12-23€1.8MUS Lecce
2026-06-05€1.8MElche CF

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.823

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 25% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€1.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 43% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€1.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Morente appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).