FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Tom

McIntyre

CBScotland · Aberdeen FC

№ 339235Emerging €232k +0.77

Player dossierPremiership

TomMcIntyre

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Aberdeen FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
Scotland
Age
27
Height
185 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values McIntyre at €500k. Model A, which never saw McIntyre during training, estimates €232k: the market value is 116% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.16. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €468k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.77A €232k▲ +0.07B €468k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
7
Minutes
486
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
6/7
Min / app
69
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for McIntyre…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €500k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €500kModel A €232k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Tom McIntyre's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 1st, Starts 57th, Minutes, last 365 days 11th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals17thAssists1stMinutes57thStarts11thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

86% this player83% defender median57th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€500k
Oct 2019
Peak
€2M
Oct 2022
Model target
€500k
May 2026
Valuations
17
3 club changes
May 2026€500kAberdeen FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €500k, Aberdeen FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-10-17€500kReading FC
2020-02-27€500kReading FC
2020-04-08€450kReading FC
2020-10-15€450kReading FC
2021-03-10€700kReading FC
2021-06-30€700kReading FC
2021-11-24€700kReading FC
2022-05-13€700kReading FC
2022-09-14€1.8MReading FC
2022-10-27€2MReading FC
2023-06-01€1.8MReading FC
2023-12-27€1.2MReading FC
2024-06-28€800kPortsmouth FC
2024-12-30€650kPortsmouth FC
2025-06-18€600kPortsmouth FC
2025-11-26€500kBradford City
2026-05-20€500kAberdeen FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.769

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 55% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 19% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Where McIntyre appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).