Tim
Siersleben
CBGermany · 1.FC Heidenheim 1846
Player dossierBundesliga
TimSiersleben
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- 1.FC Heidenheim 1846
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- Germany
- Age
- 26
- Height
- 187 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 27 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Siersleben at €1.8M. Model A, which never saw Siersleben during training, estimates €3.3M: the market value is 45% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.83. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 37
- Minutes
- 2,660
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 31/37
- Min / app
- 72
- Cards
- 7Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Siersleben…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.8M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
7% this player0% defender median69th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €125k
- Jul 2019
- Peak
- €2.5M
- Oct 2023
- Model target
- €1.8M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 18
- 2 club changes
May 2026: €1.8M, 1.FC Heidenheim 1846. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2019-07-28 | €125k | VfL Wolfsburg II |
| 2020-02-20 | €150k | VfL Wolfsburg II |
| 2020-09-16 | €200k | VfL Wolfsburg II |
| 2021-02-10 | €200k | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2021-06-09 | €250k | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2021-12-15 | €250k | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2022-06-16 | €400k | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2022-11-30 | €650k | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2023-03-31 | €1M | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2023-06-28 | €1.5M | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2023-10-18 | €2.5M | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2023-12-14 | €2.5M | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2024-03-27 | €2M | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2024-05-29 | €1.5M | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2024-12-20 | €1.5M | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2025-06-05 | €2M | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2025-12-19 | €2.5M | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
| 2026-05-27 | €1.8M | 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.607
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
Valued above 18% of the 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 48% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Siersleben appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- StögerAMBorussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga€1.8M
- BülterLW1.FC Köln · Bundesliga€1.8M
- GerhardtCMVfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga€1.8M
- FriedrichCBBorussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga€1.8M
- LejeuneCBRayo Vallecano · defenders€1.8M
- IngasonCBPanathinaikos · defenders€1.8M
- BurgessCBUnion Saint-Gilloise · defenders€1.8M
- BatesCBStandard Liège · defenders€1.8M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).