FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Kevin

Stöger

AMAustria · Borussia Mönchengladbach

№ 106872Emerging €1.1M +0.46

Player dossierBundesliga

KevinStöger

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Borussia Mönchengladbach
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Austria
Age
32
Height
175 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Stöger at €1.8M. Model A, which never saw Stöger during training, estimates €1.1M: the market value is 58% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.58. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €836k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.46A €1.1M▲ +0.77B €836k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
65
Minutes
3,293
Goals
4
Assists
8
Started
36/65
Min / app
51
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Stöger…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.8MModel A €1.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Kevin Stöger's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 59th, Assists per 90 88th, Minutes, two years 62nd, Starts 28th, Minutes, last 365 days 51st, European club minutes 30th59thGoals88thAssists62ndMinutes28thStarts51stRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.22 this player0.09 midfielder median88th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jan 2011
Peak
€6M
Jul 2020
Model target
€1.8M
May 2026
Valuations
41
11 club changes
May 2026€1.8MBorussia MönchengladbachValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.8M, Borussia Mönchengladbach. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2011-01-25€50kVfB Stuttgart U19
2011-03-01€100kVfB Stuttgart U19
2011-05-30€100kVfB Stuttgart U19
2011-07-03€150kVfB Stuttgart II
2011-10-15€200kVfB Stuttgart II
2012-06-27€400kVfB Stuttgart II
2013-01-13€400kVfB Stuttgart
2013-06-30€400kVfB Stuttgart
2014-01-20€250k1.FC Kaiserslautern
2014-06-30€250k1.FC Kaiserslautern
2014-10-01€700k1.FC Kaiserslautern
2015-01-13€1M1.FC Kaiserslautern
2015-07-01€1MVfB Stuttgart
2016-02-11€900kSC Paderborn 07
2016-07-22€800kVfL Bochum
2017-01-23€800kVfL Bochum
2017-06-27€700kVfL Bochum
2018-01-22€1MVfL Bochum
2018-06-19€2MVfL Bochum
2018-12-18€2MFortuna Düsseldorf
2019-03-06€4MFortuna Düsseldorf
2019-06-05€5MFortuna Düsseldorf
2019-12-17€5MFortuna Düsseldorf
2020-04-08€4MFortuna Düsseldorf
2020-07-08€6MWithout Club
2020-11-26€4M1.FSV Mainz 05
2021-02-10€3M1.FSV Mainz 05
2021-06-09€2.8M1.FSV Mainz 05
2021-12-22€2.3M1.FSV Mainz 05
2022-06-09€1.6M1.FSV Mainz 05
2022-09-21€2MVfL Bochum
2022-11-09€2.5MVfL Bochum
2023-06-22€3MVfL Bochum
2023-12-14€3MVfL Bochum
2024-03-27€4MVfL Bochum
2024-05-29€5MVfL Bochum
2024-12-20€4.5MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2025-06-05€3.5MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2025-12-19€3MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2026-03-20€2MBorussia Mönchengladbach
2026-05-27€1.8MBorussia Mönchengladbach

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.456

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 18% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€1.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 44% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Stöger appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).