Altay

Bayındır

GKTürkiye · Manchester United

№ 336077Established €3.5M +0.36

Player dossierPremier League

AltayBayındır

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club: Manchester United
League: Premier League
Nationality: Türkiye
Age: 28
Height: 198 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Bayındır at €5M. Model A, which never saw Bayındır during training, estimates €3.5M: the market value is 43% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.43. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €713k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 13
Minutes: 1,200
Started: 13/13
Min / app: 92
Cards: 0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bayındır…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

15% this player0% goalkeeper median79th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●86%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €25k; Jul 2015
Peak: €16M; Oct 2021
Model target: €5M; Jun 2026
Valuations: 29; 2 club changes

Jun 2026€5MManchester UnitedValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €5M, Manchester United. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2015-07-22	€25k	MKE Ankaragücü
2016-09-01	€25k	MKE Ankaragücü
2017-06-30	€50k	MKE Ankaragücü
2018-02-05	€50k	MKE Ankaragücü
2018-05-30	€150k	MKE Ankaragücü
2019-01-04	€250k	MKE Ankaragücü
2019-06-04	€600k	MKE Ankaragücü
2019-10-04	€4M	Fenerbahce
2020-01-03	€6M	Fenerbahce
2020-04-08	€5.4M	Fenerbahce
2020-08-04	€8M	Fenerbahce
2020-12-23	€11M	Fenerbahce
2021-03-16	€13.5M	Fenerbahce
2021-05-25	€14M	Fenerbahce
2021-10-12	€16M	Fenerbahce
2022-01-04	€15M	Fenerbahce
2022-03-31	€15.5M	Fenerbahce
2022-06-01	€16M	Fenerbahce
2022-09-13	€15M	Fenerbahce
2022-10-27	€13M	Fenerbahce
2023-03-14	€13M	Fenerbahce
2023-06-08	€11M	Fenerbahce
2023-10-09	€10M	Manchester United
2023-12-19	€10M	Manchester United
2024-05-27	€10M	Manchester United
2024-12-16	€10M	Manchester United
2025-05-30	€8M	Manchester United
2025-12-09	€7M	Manchester United
2026-06-03	€5M	Manchester United

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: +0.360

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 21% of the 555 Premier League players.

See them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 79% of the 485 goalkeepers.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Bayındır appears

TerminalPremier League in the Player Explorer
TerminalPremier League on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).