FairValue

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Portrait of Will Hughes

Will

Hughes

CMEngland · Crystal Palace

№ 207014Established €5.3M −0.06

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

WillHughes

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Crystal Palace
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
31
Height
185 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Hughes at €5M. Model A, which never saw Hughes during training, estimates €5.3M: the market value is 6% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.06. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €6.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.06A €5.3M▼ −0.24B €6.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
75
Minutes
4,293
Goals
0
Assists
6
Started
49/75
Min / app
57
Cards
19Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Hughes…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €5MModel A €5.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Will Hughes's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 62nd, Minutes, two years 78th, Starts 43rd, Minutes, last 365 days 63rd, European club minutes 61st10thGoals62ndAssists78thMinutes43rdStarts63rdRecent61stEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

4,293 this player2,607 midfielder median78th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,624

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€1.5M
Mar 2013
Peak
€18M
Jun 2019
Model target
€5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
30
2 club changes
Jun 2026€5MCrystal PalaceValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €5M, Crystal Palace. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-03-02€1.5MDerby County
2013-07-12€1.7MDerby County
2013-09-18€3MDerby County
2014-01-08€7MDerby County
2015-02-24€7MDerby County
2015-09-24€7MDerby County
2016-04-20€8MDerby County
2016-09-01€8MDerby County
2017-02-27€8MDerby County
2018-01-02€10MWatford FC
2018-05-28€10MWatford FC
2018-10-17€15MWatford FC
2018-12-19€15MWatford FC
2019-06-13€18MWatford FC
2019-12-10€18MWatford FC
2020-04-08€14.5MWatford FC
2020-10-15€11MWatford FC
2020-12-22€9MWatford FC
2021-03-10€7MWatford FC
2021-06-30€7MWatford FC
2021-12-23€6MCrystal Palace
2022-06-15€6MCrystal Palace
2022-11-03€5MCrystal Palace
2023-06-20€5MCrystal Palace
2023-12-19€9MCrystal Palace
2024-05-27€9MCrystal Palace
2024-12-16€9MCrystal Palace
2025-05-30€7MCrystal Palace
2025-12-09€6MCrystal Palace
2026-06-03€5MCrystal Palace

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.058

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 21% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 65% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Hughes appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).