FairValue

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Portrait of Kepa Arrizabalaga

Kepa

Arrizabalaga

GKSpain · Arsenal FC

№ 192279Established €8.1M −0.48

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

KepaArrizabalaga

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Arsenal FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Spain
Age
31
Height
188 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Arrizabalaga at €5M. Model A, which never saw Arrizabalaga during training, estimates €8.1M: the market value is 38% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.61. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.48A €8.1M▲ +1.13B €1.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
47
Minutes
4,257
Started
47/47
Min / app
91
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Arrizabalaga…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €5MModel A €8.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Kepa Arrizabalaga's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 69th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 40th, European club minutes 65th69thMinutes62ndStarts40thRecent65thEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

4,257 this player2,790 goalkeeper median69th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,210

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€500k
Aug 2012
Peak
€60M
Jun 2019
Model target
€5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
35
9 club changes
Jun 2026€5MArsenal FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €5M, Arsenal FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-08-25€500kCD Basconia
2014-07-20€1MAthletic Bilbao
2015-01-08€1MSD Ponferradina
2015-07-01€1MAthletic Bilbao
2016-02-22€1.5MReal Valladolid CF
2016-07-15€1.5MAthletic Bilbao
2017-01-24€3MAthletic Bilbao
2017-03-29€5MAthletic Bilbao
2017-06-05€8MAthletic Bilbao
2018-01-01€20MAthletic Bilbao
2018-05-30€20MAthletic Bilbao
2018-08-13€40MChelsea FC
2018-10-17€50MChelsea FC
2018-12-19€55MChelsea FC
2019-06-13€60MChelsea FC
2019-12-10€60MChelsea FC
2020-03-09€40MChelsea FC
2020-04-08€32MChelsea FC
2020-07-30€28MChelsea FC
2020-10-13€18MChelsea FC
2020-12-17€15MChelsea FC
2021-03-18€13MChelsea FC
2021-06-08€13MChelsea FC
2021-12-23€10MChelsea FC
2022-06-15€10MChelsea FC
2022-11-03€15MChelsea FC
2023-06-20€18MChelsea FC
2023-12-22€20MReal Madrid
2024-03-21€12MReal Madrid
2024-06-07€12MReal Madrid
2024-12-16€11MAFC Bournemouth
2025-05-30€10MAFC Bournemouth
2025-10-17€8MArsenal FC
2025-12-09€7MArsenal FC
2026-06-03€5MArsenal FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.478

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 21% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 79% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Arrizabalaga appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).