Deniz
Undav
CFGermany · VfB Stuttgart
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierBundesliga
DenizUndav
CFCentre-ForwardAttack
- Club
- VfB Stuttgart
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- Germany
- Age
- 29
- Height
- 179 cm
- Foot
- Both
- Valued
- 27 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Undav at €22M. Model A, which never saw Undav during training, estimates €26.4M: the market value is 17% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.20. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €29.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 83
- Minutes
- 5,970
- Goals
- 38
- Assists
- 20
- Started
- 68/83
- Min / app
- 72
- Cards
- 13Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Undav…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €22M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
Minutes, last 365 days
Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.
3,555 this player1,301 attacker median98th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €25k
- May 2015
- Peak
- €28M
- Oct 2024
- Model target
- €22M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 34
- 6 club changes
May 2026: €22M, VfB Stuttgart. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2015-05-08 | €25k | TSV Havelse U19 |
| 2015-07-14 | €25k | TSV Havelse |
| 2015-11-04 | €50k | TSV Havelse |
| 2016-02-25 | €75k | TSV Havelse |
| 2016-07-27 | €125k | TSV Havelse |
| 2016-10-25 | €150k | TSV Havelse |
| 2017-02-05 | €175k | TSV Havelse |
| 2017-08-02 | €175k | Eintracht Braunschweig II |
| 2018-02-09 | €175k | Eintracht Braunschweig II |
| 2018-06-19 | €175k | Eintracht Braunschweig II |
| 2018-06-30 | €225k | Eintracht Braunschweig II |
| 2019-01-15 | €225k | SV Meppen |
| 2019-06-14 | €225k | SV Meppen |
| 2019-12-11 | €400k | SV Meppen |
| 2020-04-03 | €700k | SV Meppen |
| 2020-04-08 | €550k | SV Meppen |
| 2020-07-01 | €800k | Union Saint-Gilloise |
| 2020-10-21 | €600k | Union Saint-Gilloise |
| 2021-02-23 | €900k | Union Saint-Gilloise |
| 2021-10-06 | €2.2M | Union Saint-Gilloise |
| 2022-01-06 | €5M | Union Saint-Gilloise |
| 2022-04-12 | €8M | Union Saint-Gilloise |
| 2022-11-03 | €6M | Brighton & Hove Albion |
| 2023-06-20 | €10M | Brighton & Hove Albion |
| 2023-12-14 | €17M | VfB Stuttgart |
| 2024-03-27 | €22M | VfB Stuttgart |
| 2024-05-29 | €25M | VfB Stuttgart |
| 2024-10-09 | €28M | VfB Stuttgart |
| 2024-12-20 | €28M | VfB Stuttgart |
| 2025-03-27 | €22M | VfB Stuttgart |
| 2025-06-05 | €20M | VfB Stuttgart |
| 2025-12-19 | €20M | VfB Stuttgart |
| 2026-03-20 | €22M | VfB Stuttgart |
| 2026-05-27 | €22M | VfB Stuttgart |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.183
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
Valued above 85% of the 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 89% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Undav appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- DemirovicCFVfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga€22M
- SilvaCFBorussia Dortmund · Bundesliga€22M
- MatsimaCBFC Augsburg · Bundesliga€22M
- SvenssonLBBorussia Dortmund · Bundesliga€22M
- SalahRWLiverpool FC · attackers€22M
- Calvert-LewinCFLeeds United · attackers€22M
- LangLWGalatasaray · attackers€22M
- RaspadoriSSAtalanta BC · attackers€22M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).