Brad
Lyons
Player dossierPremiership
BradLyons
CMCentral MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Kilmarnock FC
- League
- Premiership
- Nationality
- Northern Ireland
- Age
- 28
- Height
- 176 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 20 May 2026
PremiershipReading the valuation
The market values Lyons at €350k. Model A, which never saw Lyons during training, estimates €407k: the market value is 14% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.16. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 67
- Minutes
- 5,209
- Goals
- 2
- Assists
- 3
- Started
- 61/67
- Min / app
- 78
- Cards
- 14Y 1R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Lyons…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €350k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
Minutes, two years
Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.
5,209 this player2,607 midfielder median88th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €250k
- Jun 2019
- Peak
- €350k
- May 2024
- Model target
- €350k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 12
- 1 club change
May 2026: €350k, Kilmarnock FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2019-06-28 | €250k | Blackburn Rovers |
| 2021-06-30 | €150k | Blackburn Rovers |
| 2021-12-31 | €150k | Kilmarnock FC |
| 2022-05-31 | €200k | Kilmarnock FC |
| 2022-12-13 | €200k | Kilmarnock FC |
| 2023-06-26 | €200k | Kilmarnock FC |
| 2023-12-05 | €250k | Kilmarnock FC |
| 2024-05-30 | €350k | Kilmarnock FC |
| 2024-12-03 | €350k | Kilmarnock FC |
| 2025-06-17 | €350k | Kilmarnock FC |
| 2025-12-10 | €350k | Kilmarnock FC |
| 2026-05-20 | €350k | Kilmarnock FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.151
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premiership311 players · median €400k
Valued above 45% of the 311 Premiership players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 10% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Lyons appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- McCartCBHeart of Midlothian FC · Premiership€350k
- NlunduluCFSt. Mirren FC · Premiership€350k
- Schjönning-LarsenLBKilmarnock FC · Premiership€350k
- FadingerCMMotherwell FC · Premiership€350k
- KovalevRMBaltika Kaliningrad · midfielders€350k
- StaikosDMAE Larisa · midfielders€350k
- JuanpiAMVolos NFC · midfielders€350k
- LuísAMPanetolikos · midfielders€350k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).