Matteo

Pessina

CMItaly · AC Monza

№ 332179Established €3.6M +0.33

Player dossierSerie A

MatteoPessina

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club: AC Monza
League: Serie A
Nationality: Italy
Age: 28
Height: 187 cm
Foot: Left
Valued: 11 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Pessina at €5M. Model A, which never saw Pessina during training, estimates €3.6M: the market value is 39% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.39. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 35
Minutes: 2,906
Goals: 6
Assists: 2
Started: 34/35
Min / app: 83
Cards: 5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Pessina…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

97% this player69% midfielder median97th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €75k; Jul 2014
Peak: €20M; Mar 2021
Model target: €5M; Dec 2025
Valuations: 29; 8 club changes

Dec 2025€5MAC MonzaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €5M, AC Monza. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2014-07-15	€75k	Unknown
2015-02-04	€75k	AC Monza
2015-06-19	€250k	AC Monza
2016-01-19	€225k	Calcio Catania
2016-06-22	€175k	Calcio Catania
2016-12-12	€300k	Calcio Como
2017-06-20	€600k	Calcio Como
2017-12-21	€1.2M	Spezia Calcio
2018-06-18	€2M	Spezia Calcio
2018-12-20	€2M	Atalanta BC
2019-06-06	€1.5M	Atalanta BC
2019-12-12	€3M	Hellas Verona
2020-03-03	€8M	Hellas Verona
2020-04-08	€6.5M	Hellas Verona
2020-08-25	€12M	Hellas Verona
2020-12-29	€15M	Atalanta BC
2021-03-23	€20M	Atalanta BC
2021-05-25	€20M	Atalanta BC
2021-12-28	€18M	Atalanta BC
2022-06-07	€16M	Atalanta BC
2022-11-11	€14M	AC Monza
2023-06-15	€15M	AC Monza
2023-12-20	€15M	AC Monza
2024-06-05	€15M	AC Monza
2024-12-18	€12M	AC Monza
2025-03-25	€9M	AC Monza
2025-06-17	€6M	AC Monza
2025-10-06	€5M	AC Monza
2025-12-11	€5M	AC Monza

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: +0.326

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 45% of the 507 Serie A players.

See them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 65% of the 1,687 midfielders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Pessina appears

TerminalSerie A in the Player Explorer
TerminalSerie A on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).