FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Enes

Mahmutovic

CBLuxembourg · NAC Breda

№ 329055Emerging €350k −0.34

Player dossierEredivisie

EnesMahmutovic

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
NAC Breda
League
Eredivisie
Nationality
Luxembourg
Age
29
Height
190 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Mahmutovic at €250k. Model A, which never saw Mahmutovic during training, estimates €350k: the market value is 29% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.40. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €752k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.34A €350k▼ −1.10B €752k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
27
Minutes
1,494
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
17/27
Min / app
55
Cards
2Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Mahmutovic…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €250k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €250kModel A €350k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Enes Mahmutovic's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 23rd, Starts 18th, Minutes, last 365 days 21st, European club minutes 30th18thGoals17thAssists23rdMinutes18thStarts21stRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

0% this player0% defender median30th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€75k
Dec 2016
Peak
€500k
Jun 2021
Model target
€250k
May 2026
Valuations
16
4 club changes
May 2026€250kNAC BredaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €250k, NAC Breda. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-12-23€75kCS Fola Esch
2019-07-03€150kMVV Maastricht
2020-06-29€175kMVV Maastricht
2020-09-04€200kPFC Lviv
2021-01-14€300kPFC Lviv
2021-06-07€500kPFC Lviv
2021-12-20€400kPFC Lviv
2022-05-31€350kCSKA-Sofia
2022-11-28€250kCSKA-Sofia
2023-06-05€400kCSKA-Sofia
2023-12-20€400kCSKA-Sofia
2024-06-03€400kCSKA-Sofia
2024-12-17€350kNAC Breda
2025-05-28€400kNAC Breda
2025-12-02€300kNAC Breda
2026-05-28€250kNAC Breda

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.336

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Eredivisie425 players · median €1M

Valued above 5% of the 425 Eredivisie players.

€75k€500k€3M€20M€250kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 7% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€250kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Mahmutovic appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).