FairValue

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Portrait of Matthijs de Ligt

Matthijs de

Ligt

CBNetherlands · Manchester United

№ 326031World Class €25.7M +0.15

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

Matthijs deLigt

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Manchester United
League
Premier League
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
26
Height
189 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ligt at €30M. Model A, which never saw Ligt during training, estimates €25.7M: the market value is 17% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.17. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €6.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.15A €25.7M▲ +1.57B €6.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
54
Minutes
4,247
Goals
3
Assists
0
Started
48/54
Min / app
79
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ligt…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €30M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €30MModel A €25.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Matthijs de Ligt's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 72nd, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 73rd, Starts 66th, Minutes, last 365 days 35th, European club minutes 79th72ndGoals17thAssists73rdMinutes66thStarts35thRecent79thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

16% this player0% defender median79th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Jul 2016
Peak
€75M
Jun 2019
Model target
€30M
Jun 2026
Valuations
31
4 club changes
Jun 2026€30MManchester UnitedValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €30M, Manchester United. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-07-01€100kAjax Amsterdam U21
2017-01-18€1MAjax Amsterdam
2017-06-07€5MAjax Amsterdam
2018-01-17€16MAjax Amsterdam
2018-03-27€25MAjax Amsterdam
2018-06-12€40MAjax Amsterdam
2018-10-04€50MAjax Amsterdam
2018-12-28€65MAjax Amsterdam
2019-03-13€70MAjax Amsterdam
2019-06-12€75MAjax Amsterdam
2019-12-12€75MJuventus FC
2020-04-08€67.5MJuventus FC
2020-08-25€70MJuventus FC
2020-12-29€75MJuventus FC
2021-05-27€75MJuventus FC
2021-10-14€70MJuventus FC
2021-12-28€65MJuventus FC
2022-03-15€70MJuventus FC
2022-06-07€70MJuventus FC
2022-11-09€70MBayern Munich
2023-03-29€75MBayern Munich
2023-06-22€75MBayern Munich
2023-10-18€70MBayern Munich
2023-12-14€65MBayern Munich
2024-05-29€65MBayern Munich
2024-10-01€55MManchester United
2024-12-16€45MManchester United
2025-03-18€40MManchester United
2025-05-30€38MManchester United
2025-12-09€40MManchester United
2026-06-03€30MManchester United

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.154

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 73% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€30MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 95% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€30MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ligt appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).