FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Mama

Baldé

CFGuinea-Bissau · Stade Brestois 29

№ 325223Established €2.5M +0.18

Player dossierLigue 1

MamaBaldé

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Stade Brestois 29
League
Ligue 1
Nationality
Guinea-Bissau
Age
30
Height
176 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Baldé at €3M. Model A, which never saw Baldé during training, estimates €2.5M: the market value is 20% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.20. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.18A €2.5M▲ +0.22B €2.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
56
Minutes
2,341
Goals
4
Assists
6
Started
25/56
Min / app
42
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Baldé…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €2.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Mama Baldé's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 24th, Assists per 90 79th, Minutes, two years 52nd, Starts 26th, Minutes, last 365 days 25th, European club minutes 83rd24thGoals79thAssists52ndMinutes26thStarts25thRecent83rdEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

19% this player0% attacker median83rd percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jul 2015
Peak
€8M
Mar 2023
Model target
€3M
Jun 2026
Valuations
29
5 club changes
Jun 2026€3MStade Brestois 29Valuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €3M, Stade Brestois 29. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-07-31€50kSporting CP B
2016-03-14€350kSporting CP B
2016-09-30€400kSporting CP B
2017-06-30€400kSporting CP B
2018-02-07€400kDesportivo Aves (- 2020)
2018-06-13€500kDesportivo Aves (- 2020)
2019-01-11€1MDesportivo Aves (- 2020)
2019-03-18€2MDesportivo Aves (- 2020)
2019-06-07€2.5MDesportivo Aves (- 2020)
2019-12-19€2.5MDijon FCO
2020-03-13€4MDijon FCO
2020-04-08€3.2MDijon FCO
2020-10-15€3.5MDijon FCO
2021-01-07€6MDijon FCO
2021-06-04€4.5MDijon FCO
2021-10-08€4MESTAC Troyes
2021-12-16€5MESTAC Troyes
2022-05-30€4.5MESTAC Troyes
2022-09-19€5MESTAC Troyes
2022-11-02€6MESTAC Troyes
2023-03-27€8MESTAC Troyes
2023-06-27€8MESTAC Troyes
2023-12-18€6MOlympique Lyon
2024-03-19€4MOlympique Lyon
2024-06-03€4MOlympique Lyon
2024-12-10€4.5MStade Brestois 29
2025-06-03€4MStade Brestois 29
2025-12-15€3.5MStade Brestois 29
2026-06-01€3MStade Brestois 29

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.183

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 30% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 52% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Baldé appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).