FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Andriy

Savenkov

LBUkraine · SC Poltava

№ 321947Emerging €171k +0.15

Player dossierPremier Liha

AndriySavenkov

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
SC Poltava
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Ukraine
Age
29
Height
176 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Savenkov at €200k. Model A, which never saw Savenkov during training, estimates €171k: the market value is 17% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.17. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €577k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.15A €171k▼ −1.06B €577k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
21
Minutes
1,500
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
15/21
Min / app
71
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Savenkov…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €200k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €200kModel A €171k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Andriy Savenkov's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 63rd, Minutes, two years 23rd, Starts 29th, Minutes, last 365 days 44th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals63rdAssists23rdMinutes29thStarts44thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.06 this player0.04 defender median63rd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€10k
Aug 2022
Peak
€200k
Jun 2026
Model target
€200k
Jun 2026
Valuations
10
0 club changes
Jun 2026€200kSC PoltavaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €200k, SC Poltava. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-08-31€10kSC Poltava
2022-12-06€25kSC Poltava
2023-06-21€50kSC Poltava
2023-12-11€25kSC Poltava
2024-06-06€10kSC Poltava
2024-12-17€25kSC Poltava
2025-06-10€50kSC Poltava
2025-09-10€100kSC Poltava
2025-12-18€100kSC Poltava
2026-06-02€200kSC Poltava

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.154

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 10% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€200kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 5% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€200kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Savenkov appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).