FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Justin Bijlow

Justin

Bijlow

GKNetherlands · Genoa CFC

№ 315121Established €2.7M +0.39

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

JustinBijlow

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Genoa CFC
League
Serie A
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
28
Height
188 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Bijlow at €4M. Model A, which never saw Bijlow during training, estimates €2.7M: the market value is 47% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.47. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.39A €2.7M▲ +0.60B €2.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
25
Minutes
2,150
Started
25/25
Min / app
86
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bijlow…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €4MModel A €2.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Justin Bijlow's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 40th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 48th, European club minutes 68th40thMinutes62ndStarts48thRecent68thEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

6% this player0% goalkeeper median68th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●86%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Apr 2016
Peak
€15M
Jun 2023
Model target
€4M
May 2026
Valuations
30
2 club changes
May 2026€4MGenoa CFCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €4M, Genoa CFC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-04-08€200kFeyenoord U19
2016-07-15€300kFeyenoord Rotterdam
2017-01-18€300kFeyenoord Rotterdam
2017-06-07€400kFeyenoord Rotterdam
2018-01-17€750kFeyenoord Rotterdam
2018-06-12€1MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2018-10-04€3MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2018-12-28€3MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2019-06-12€3MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2019-12-18€3MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2020-03-12€5MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2020-04-08€4.5MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2020-08-12€6MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2020-10-14€7.5MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2021-01-06€8MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2021-05-19€8MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2021-10-04€12MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2022-01-05€13MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2022-06-08€13MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2022-11-11€13MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2023-06-23€15MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2023-12-15€15MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2024-03-18€13MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2024-05-31€13MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2024-10-14€8.5MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2024-12-17€6.5MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2025-03-28€5MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2025-05-28€5MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2025-12-02€4MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2026-05-29€4MGenoa CFC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.388

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 39% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 75% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Bijlow appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).