FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Jae-sung

Lee

AMKorea, South · 1.FSV Mainz 05

№ 314398Established €2.1M −0.03

Player dossierBundesliga

Jae-sungLee

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
1.FSV Mainz 05
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Korea, South
Age
33
Height
180 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Lee at €2M. Model A, which never saw Lee during training, estimates €2.1M: the market value is 3% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.03. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.03A €2.1M▲ +0.54B €1.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
66
Minutes
5,225
Goals
12
Assists
11
Started
61/66
Min / app
79
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Lee…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2MModel A €2.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Jae-sung Lee's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 84th, Assists per 90 81st, Minutes, two years 89th, Starts 90th, Minutes, last 365 days 78th, European club minutes 63rd84thGoals81stAssists89thMinutes90thStarts78thRecent63rdEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

92% this player69% midfielder median90th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Mar 2014
Peak
€4M
Mar 2023
Model target
€2M
May 2026
Valuations
25
2 club changes
May 2026€2M1.FSV Mainz 05Valuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €2M, 1.FSV Mainz 05. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-03-13€50kJeonbuk Hyundai Motors
2014-07-01€100kJeonbuk Hyundai Motors
2015-01-01€500kJeonbuk Hyundai Motors
2016-10-04€1MJeonbuk Hyundai Motors
2017-12-15€2MJeonbuk Hyundai Motors
2018-08-21€2MHolstein Kiel
2019-01-08€2MHolstein Kiel
2019-06-12€1.5MHolstein Kiel
2019-12-13€2MHolstein Kiel
2020-04-08€1.6MHolstein Kiel
2020-07-15€2MHolstein Kiel
2021-02-08€3MHolstein Kiel
2021-06-16€3MHolstein Kiel
2021-12-22€3.5M1.FSV Mainz 05
2022-06-09€3M1.FSV Mainz 05
2022-11-09€3M1.FSV Mainz 05
2023-03-29€4M1.FSV Mainz 05
2023-06-22€4M1.FSV Mainz 05
2023-10-18€3M1.FSV Mainz 05
2023-12-14€3M1.FSV Mainz 05
2024-05-29€2.5M1.FSV Mainz 05
2024-12-20€2.5M1.FSV Mainz 05
2025-06-05€2.5M1.FSV Mainz 05
2025-12-19€2M1.FSV Mainz 05
2026-05-27€2M1.FSV Mainz 05

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.029

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 19% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 46% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Lee appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).