FairValue

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Alfonso

Espino

LBUruguay · Rayo Vallecano

№ 311044Emerging €1.2M −0.29

Player dossierLaLiga

AlfonsoEspino

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Rayo Vallecano
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Uruguay
Age
34
Height
172 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Espino at €900k. Model A, which never saw Espino during training, estimates €1.2M: the market value is 25% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.34. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.29A €1.2M▼ −0.11B €1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
53
Minutes
2,919
Goals
3
Assists
2
Started
31/53
Min / app
55
Cards
11Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Espino…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €900k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €900kModel A €1.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Alfonso Espino's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 84th, Assists per 90 64th, Minutes, two years 52nd, Starts 14th, Minutes, last 365 days 56th, European club minutes 68th84thGoals64thAssists52ndMinutes14thStarts56thRecent68thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.09 this player0.03 defender median84th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Mar 2014
Peak
€6M
Jun 2022
Model target
€900k
Jun 2026
Valuations
30
2 club changes
Jun 2026€900kRayo VallecanoValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €900k, Rayo Vallecano. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-03-03€100kClub Nacional
2014-08-17€250kClub Nacional
2015-02-12€425kClub Nacional
2015-08-14€550kClub Nacional
2016-02-25€750kClub Nacional
2016-09-09€1MClub Nacional
2017-02-22€1MClub Nacional
2018-02-05€1.3MClub Nacional
2019-02-19€1.2MCádiz CF
2019-06-29€800kCádiz CF
2019-12-20€1.2MCádiz CF
2020-04-08€950kCádiz CF
2020-07-23€1.2MCádiz CF
2020-10-08€1.2MCádiz CF
2020-11-23€2MCádiz CF
2021-01-05€2MCádiz CF
2021-06-10€2.5MCádiz CF
2021-10-13€3MCádiz CF
2021-12-30€3MCádiz CF
2022-06-03€6MCádiz CF
2022-09-23€5MCádiz CF
2022-11-07€4MCádiz CF
2023-06-13€3.5MCádiz CF
2023-12-22€3MRayo Vallecano
2024-03-21€2.5MRayo Vallecano
2024-06-07€2.4MRayo Vallecano
2024-12-27€1.5MRayo Vallecano
2025-06-09€1.2MRayo Vallecano
2025-12-12€1MRayo Vallecano
2026-06-05€900kRayo Vallecano

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.294

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 7% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€900kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 33% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€900kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Espino appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).