Will
Nightingale
CBEngland · Ross County FC
Player dossierPremiership
WillNightingale
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- Ross County FC
- League
- Premiership
- Nationality
- England
- Age
- 29
- Height
- 185 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 17 Jun 2025
PremiershipReading the valuation
The market values Nightingale at €100k. Model A, which never saw Nightingale during training, estimates €175k: the market value is 43% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.75. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €442k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 21
- Minutes
- 1,717
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 18/21
- Min / app
- 82
- Cards
- 6Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Nightingale…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €100k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
86% this player83% defender median57th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Apr 2017
- Peak
- €100k
- Apr 2023
- Model target
- €100k
- Jun 2025
- Valuations
- 8
- 1 club change
Jun 2025: €100k, Ross County FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-21 | €50k | AFC Wimbledon |
| 2017-10-24 | €75k | AFC Wimbledon |
| 2023-04-06 | €100k | AFC Wimbledon |
| 2023-06-23 | €100k | AFC Wimbledon |
| 2023-12-05 | €100k | Ross County FC |
| 2024-05-30 | €100k | Ross County FC |
| 2024-12-03 | €100k | Ross County FC |
| 2025-06-17 | €100k | Ross County FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.559
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premiership311 players · median €400k
Valued above 7% of the 311 Premiership players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 1% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Nightingale appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- BainGKFalkirk FC · Premiership€100k
- ShinnieDMAberdeen FC · Premiership€100k
- WilsonCBLivingston FC · Premiership€100k
- HoltCMSt. Johnstone FC · Premiership€100k
- FonteCBCasa Pia AC · defenders€100k
- NeustädterCBKVC Westerlo · defenders€100k
- SarıCBAntalyaspor · defenders€100k
- DalsgaardRBAarhus GF · defenders€100k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).