FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Aleksandr

Filin

CBRussia · Baltika Kaliningrad

№ 301037Emerging €2.2M −0.61

Player dossierPremier Liga

AleksandrFilin

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Baltika Kaliningrad
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
29
Height
185 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Filin at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Filin during training, estimates €2.2M: the market value is 45% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.83. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.61A €2.2M▼ −0.94B €3.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
60
Minutes
4,619
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
51/60
Min / app
77
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Filin…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.2MModel A €2.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Aleksandr Filin's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 40th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 78th, Starts 56th, Minutes, last 365 days 55th, European club minutes 30th40thGoals17thAssists78thMinutes56thStarts55thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

4,619 this player2,860 defender median78th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jan 2016
Peak
€1.2M
Jun 2021
Model target
€1.2M
May 2026
Valuations
25
8 club changes
May 2026€1.2MBaltika KaliningradValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.2M, Baltika Kaliningrad. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-01-23€50kFC Ufa
2016-12-02€50kFC Ufa
2017-06-01€50kFC Ufa
2017-12-05€100kOlimpiets Nizhniy Novgorod
2018-06-06€250kOlimpiets Nizhniy Novgorod
2018-10-15€300kFC Khimki
2018-12-20€400kFC Khimki
2019-06-14€500kFC Khimki
2019-12-23€600kFC Khimki
2020-03-30€800kFK Tambov
2020-04-08€650kFK Tambov
2020-07-29€900kPFK Tambov
2020-12-29€900kFC Khimki
2021-06-02€1.2MFC Khimki
2021-12-29€1.2MFC Khimki
2022-06-02€1MFC Khimki
2022-11-21€800kFC Khimki
2023-06-09€800kKAS Eupen
2023-10-23€700kKAS Eupen
2023-12-19€600kKAS Eupen
2024-06-04€600kKAS Eupen
2024-12-12€900kFC Khimki
2025-06-04€1MFC Khimki
2025-12-16€1.2MBaltika Kaliningrad
2026-05-26€1.2MBaltika Kaliningrad

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.607

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 51% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 39% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Filin appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).