FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Uğurcan

Yazğılı

CBTürkiye · Konyaspor

№ 295955Established €1.3M +0.46

Player dossierSüper Lig

UğurcanYazğılı

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Konyaspor
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Türkiye
Age
27
Height
184 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Yazğılı at €2M. Model A, which never saw Yazğılı during training, estimates €1.3M: the market value is 58% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.58. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.5M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.46A €1.3M▼ −0.21B €2.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
55
Minutes
4,036
Goals
1
Assists
2
Started
47/55
Min / app
73
Cards
12Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Yazğılı…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2MModel A €1.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Uğurcan Yazğılı's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 42nd, Assists per 90 53rd, Minutes, two years 70th, Starts 56th, Minutes, last 365 days 62nd, European club minutes 30th42ndGoals53rdAssists70thMinutes56thStarts62ndRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

4,036 this player2,860 defender median70th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Sept 2017
Peak
€2M
May 2026
Model target
€2M
May 2026
Valuations
26
3 club changes
May 2026€2MKonyasporValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €2M, Konyaspor. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-09-09€50kBucaspor
2018-06-30€100kBucaspor
2019-01-04€100kKasimpasa
2019-06-04€100kKasimpasa
2020-01-03€150kKasimpasa
2020-08-27€150kAdanaspor
2020-10-12€175kAdanaspor
2020-12-30€175kAdanaspor
2021-03-23€225kAdanaspor
2021-06-02€200kAdanaspor
2022-01-17€350kAdanaspor
2022-03-31€700kKonyaspor
2022-06-01€700kKonyaspor
2022-10-27€650kKonyaspor
2023-03-14€600kKonyaspor
2023-06-08€900kKonyaspor
2023-09-27€1MKonyaspor
2023-12-21€900kKonyaspor
2024-03-15€1MKonyaspor
2024-05-31€1MKonyaspor
2024-10-04€1MKonyaspor
2024-12-23€1.2MKonyaspor
2025-03-20€1.1MKonyaspor
2025-06-18€1.2MKonyaspor
2025-12-17€1.2MKonyaspor
2026-05-21€2MKonyaspor

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.458

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 61% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 49% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Yazğılı appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).