FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Mikhail

Oparin

GKRussia · Ural Yekaterinburg

№ 293828Emerging €275k −0.32

Player dossierPremier Liga

MikhailOparin

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Ural Yekaterinburg
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
32
Height
197 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
3 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Oparin at €200k. Model A, which never saw Oparin during training, estimates €275k: the market value is 27% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.38. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €388k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.32A €275k▼ −0.66B €388k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
12
Minutes
1,023
Started
11/12
Min / app
85
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Oparin…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €200k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €200kModel A €275k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Mikhail Oparin's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 19th, Starts 9th, Minutes, last 365 days 6th, European club minutes 32nd19thMinutes9thStarts6thRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

0% this player0% goalkeeper median32nd percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●86%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€75k
Jun 2015
Peak
€400k
May 2022
Model target
€200k
Dec 2025
Valuations
22
6 club changes
Dec 2025€200kUral YekaterinburgValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €200k, Ural Yekaterinburg. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-06-11€75kEnisey Krasnoyarsk
2016-01-10€75kEnisey Krasnoyarsk
2016-07-01€75kEnisey Krasnoyarsk
2016-10-28€100kEnisey Krasnoyarsk
2017-06-01€300kEnisey Krasnoyarsk
2017-12-23€350kFC Tosno
2018-06-06€350kFC Tosno
2018-12-20€350kSKA Khabarovsk
2019-06-14€350kSKA Khabarovsk
2019-12-23€250kEnisey Krasnoyarsk
2020-06-29€250kEnisey Krasnoyarsk
2020-12-29€300kEnisey Krasnoyarsk
2021-05-24€350kEnisey Krasnoyarsk
2021-12-07€350kEnisey Krasnoyarsk
2022-05-30€400kEnisey Krasnoyarsk
2022-11-21€400kAkhmat Grozny
2023-06-14€400kAkhmat Grozny
2023-12-13€350kAkhmat Grozny
2024-06-04€350kAkhmat Grozny
2024-12-12€300kAkhmat Grozny
2025-06-02€250kShinnik Yaroslavl
2025-12-03€200kUral Yekaterinburg

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.319

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 2% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€200kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 9% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€200kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Oparin appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).