FairValue

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Portrait of Karl Darlow

Karl

Darlow

GKWales · Leeds United

№ 99397Emerging €600k −1.10

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

KarlDarlow

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Leeds United
League
Premier League
Nationality
Wales
Age
35
Height
190 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Darlow at €200k. Model A, which never saw Darlow during training, estimates €600k: the market value is 67% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×3.00. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €145k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −1.10A €600k▲ +0.32B €145k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
24
Minutes
2,160
Started
24/24
Min / app
90
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Darlow…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €200k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €200kModel A €600k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Karl Darlow's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 41st, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 61st, European club minutes 32nd41stMinutes62ndStarts61stRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile

70%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jul 2009
Peak
€4.5M
Jun 2017
Model target
€200k
Jun 2026
Valuations
33
5 club changes
Jun 2026€200kLeeds UnitedValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €200k, Leeds United. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2009-07-02€50kNottingham Forest U21
2013-03-02€250kNottingham Forest
2013-07-12€500kNottingham Forest
2014-01-08€1MNottingham Forest
2014-08-19€3MNottingham Forest
2015-02-24€3MNottingham Forest
2015-07-01€3.5MNewcastle United
2016-02-09€2.5MNewcastle United
2016-09-01€2.5MNewcastle United
2017-02-27€3MNewcastle United
2017-06-28€4.5MNewcastle United
2018-01-02€4.5MNewcastle United
2018-05-28€4.5MNewcastle United
2018-12-19€3.5MNewcastle United
2019-06-13€3.5MNewcastle United
2019-12-10€3MNewcastle United
2020-04-08€2.4MNewcastle United
2020-10-13€2.4MNewcastle United
2020-12-17€3MNewcastle United
2021-03-18€3MNewcastle United
2021-06-08€3MNewcastle United
2021-12-23€3MNewcastle United
2022-06-15€2.5MNewcastle United
2022-11-03€1.8MNewcastle United
2023-03-24€1.2MHull City
2023-06-01€1MNewcastle United
2023-12-21€400kLeeds United
2024-03-07€300kLeeds United
2024-05-24€300kLeeds United
2024-12-30€250kLeeds United
2025-05-27€200kLeeds United
2025-12-09€200kLeeds United
2026-06-03€200kLeeds United

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−1.098

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 0% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€200kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 9% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€200kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Darlow appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).