FairValue

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Portrait of Nikola Vlašić

Nikola

Vlašić

AMCroatia · Torino FC

№ 293200Elite €8.3M +0.19

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

NikolaVlašić

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Torino FC
League
Serie A
Nationality
Croatia
Age
28
Height
179 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Vlašić at €10M. Model A, which never saw Vlašić during training, estimates €8.3M: the market value is 21% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.21. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €6.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.19A €8.3M▲ +0.49B €6.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
71
Minutes
5,472
Goals
14
Assists
9
Started
62/71
Min / app
77
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Vlašić…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €10MModel A €8.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Nikola Vlašić's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 87th, Assists per 90 70th, Minutes, two years 91st, Starts 82nd, Minutes, last 365 days 96th, European club minutes 30th87thGoals70thAssists91stMinutes82ndStarts96thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,350 this player1,541 midfielder median96th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,800

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€750k
Oct 2014
Peak
€30M
Dec 2020
Model target
€10M
May 2026
Valuations
31
4 club changes
May 2026€10MTorino FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €10M, Torino FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-10-01€750kHNK Hajduk Split
2015-03-17€1.3MHNK Hajduk Split
2015-09-14€3.5MHNK Hajduk Split
2016-03-14€4.5MHNK Hajduk Split
2016-09-14€4.5MHNK Hajduk Split
2017-03-13€4MHNK Hajduk Split
2017-10-23€8MEverton FC
2018-01-02€8MEverton FC
2018-05-28€8MEverton FC
2018-10-15€10MCSKA Moscow
2018-12-20€18MCSKA Moscow
2019-06-14€20MCSKA Moscow
2019-12-23€22MCSKA Moscow
2020-04-08€17.5MCSKA Moscow
2020-07-29€22MCSKA Moscow
2020-10-19€25MCSKA Moscow
2020-12-29€30MCSKA Moscow
2021-05-28€30MCSKA Moscow
2021-12-23€27MWest Ham United
2022-03-29€25MWest Ham United
2022-06-15€22MWest Ham United
2022-11-11€20MTorino FC
2023-06-15€17MTorino FC
2023-10-11€15MTorino FC
2023-12-20€13MTorino FC
2024-06-05€10MTorino FC
2024-12-18€7MTorino FC
2025-03-25€8MTorino FC
2025-06-17€8MTorino FC
2025-12-23€9MTorino FC
2026-05-29€10MTorino FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.187

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 65% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 78% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Vlašić appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).