FairValue

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Nuno

Santos

LBPortugal · Sporting CP

№ 290391Established €1.6M +0.64

Player dossierLiga Portugal

NunoSantos

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Sporting CP
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Portugal
Age
31
Height
177 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Santos at €3M. Model A, which never saw Santos during training, estimates €1.6M: the market value is 89% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.89. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.64A €1.6M▲ +0.83B €1.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
15
Minutes
653
Goals
1
Assists
2
Started
7/15
Min / app
44
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Santos…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €1.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Nuno Santos's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 94th, Assists per 90 99th, Minutes, two years 4th, Starts 5th, Minutes, last 365 days 5th, European club minutes 98th94thGoals99thAssists4thMinutes5thStarts5thRecent98thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.28 this player0.04 defender median99th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€600k
Jul 2015
Peak
€14M
Jun 2023
Model target
€3M
May 2026
Valuations
28
3 club changes
May 2026€3MSporting CPValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €3M, Sporting CP. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-07-01€600kSL Benfica B
2016-03-14€750kSL Benfica B
2016-07-29€850kVitória Setúbal FC
2017-02-22€850kVitória Setúbal FC
2017-06-26€1MVitória Setúbal FC
2018-02-07€900kRio Ave FC
2018-06-13€900kRio Ave FC
2019-01-11€800kRio Ave FC
2019-06-07€1MRio Ave FC
2019-10-11€1.5MRio Ave FC
2019-12-30€2MRio Ave FC
2020-04-08€1.6MRio Ave FC
2020-08-17€4MRio Ave FC
2021-01-28€6MSporting CP
2021-05-21€6MSporting CP
2021-12-27€7MSporting CP
2022-05-31€8MSporting CP
2022-11-01€10MSporting CP
2023-03-02€12MSporting CP
2023-06-16€14MSporting CP
2023-12-27€12MSporting CP
2024-06-06€14MSporting CP
2024-12-19€11MSporting CP
2025-03-31€9MSporting CP
2025-05-30€9MSporting CP
2025-09-30€7MSporting CP
2025-12-18€5MSporting CP
2026-05-28€3MSporting CP

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.638

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 67% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 59% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Santos appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).