FairValue

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Núrio

Fortuna

LBAngola · Volos NFC

№ 290261Emerging €595k −0.17

Player dossierSuper League

NúrioFortuna

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Volos NFC
League
Super League
Nationality
Angola
Age
31
Height
177 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Fortuna at €500k. Model A, which never saw Fortuna during training, estimates €595k: the market value is 16% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.19. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €827k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.17A €595k▼ −0.50B €827k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
25
Minutes
1,588
Goals
1
Assists
2
Started
19/25
Min / app
64
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Fortuna…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €500k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €500kModel A €595k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Núrio Fortuna's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 68th, Assists per 90 81st, Minutes, two years 24th, Starts 37th, Minutes, last 365 days 38th, European club minutes 81st68thGoals81stAssists24thMinutes37thStarts38thRecent81stEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

18% this player0% defender median81st percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Nov 2013
Peak
€5M
Aug 2020
Model target
€500k
Jun 2026
Valuations
30
5 club changes
Jun 2026€500kVolos NFCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €500k, Volos NFC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-11-08€200kSC Braga B
2015-07-31€400kSC Braga B
2016-03-14€500kSC Braga B
2016-12-30€500kAEL Limassol
2017-05-04€750kAEL Limassol
2017-10-20€1.3MRoyal Charleroi SC
2018-01-09€1.5MRoyal Charleroi SC
2018-06-03€1.2MRoyal Charleroi SC
2018-12-27€1MRoyal Charleroi SC
2019-06-10€1MRoyal Charleroi SC
2019-12-13€1.5MRoyal Charleroi SC
2020-03-30€2.5MRoyal Charleroi SC
2020-04-08€2MRoyal Charleroi SC
2020-08-06€5MKAA Gent
2020-10-16€4.2MKAA Gent
2021-01-04€3.8MKAA Gent
2021-06-07€3MKAA Gent
2021-10-06€2.5MKAA Gent
2022-01-06€3MKAA Gent
2022-04-12€3MKAA Gent
2022-11-04€2.8MKAA Gent
2023-06-09€2.5MKAA Gent
2023-12-19€2.2MKAA Gent
2024-03-22€1.8MKAA Gent
2024-06-04€1.5MKAA Gent
2024-10-02€1MKAA Gent
2024-12-11€800kKAA Gent
2025-06-02€600kUSL Dunkerque
2025-12-12€600kVolos NFC
2026-06-04€500kVolos NFC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.174

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 43% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 19% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Fortuna appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).