Lorenzo
Pellegrini
AMItaly · AS Roma
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierSerie A
LorenzoPellegrini
AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- AS Roma
- League
- Serie A
- Nationality
- Italy
- Age
- 29
- Height
- 186 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 29 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Pellegrini at €8M. Model A, which never saw Pellegrini during training, estimates €10.8M: the market value is 26% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.35. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 67
- Minutes
- 4,115
- Goals
- 10
- Assists
- 7
- Started
- 50/67
- Min / app
- 61
- Cards
- 7Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Pellegrini…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €8M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
23% this player0% midfielder median89th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €175k
- Jun 2014
- Peak
- €45M
- Oct 2021
- Model target
- €8M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 33
- 2 club changes
May 2026: €8M, AS Roma. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2014-06-24 | €175k | Roma U19 |
| 2015-03-02 | €200k | Roma U19 |
| 2015-06-17 | €250k | Roma U19 |
| 2016-01-04 | €1M | US Sassuolo |
| 2016-07-15 | €2.5M | US Sassuolo |
| 2017-01-02 | €6M | US Sassuolo |
| 2017-03-28 | €8M | US Sassuolo |
| 2017-06-08 | €12M | US Sassuolo |
| 2017-12-29 | €16M | AS Roma |
| 2018-03-24 | €23M | AS Roma |
| 2018-06-07 | €28M | AS Roma |
| 2018-12-20 | €35M | AS Roma |
| 2019-06-06 | €35M | AS Roma |
| 2019-10-08 | €40M | AS Roma |
| 2019-12-12 | €40M | AS Roma |
| 2020-04-08 | €32M | AS Roma |
| 2020-08-25 | €32M | AS Roma |
| 2020-12-29 | €37M | AS Roma |
| 2021-05-25 | €40M | AS Roma |
| 2021-10-14 | €45M | AS Roma |
| 2021-12-28 | €45M | AS Roma |
| 2022-06-07 | €45M | AS Roma |
| 2022-11-11 | €45M | AS Roma |
| 2023-03-21 | €35M | AS Roma |
| 2023-06-15 | €35M | AS Roma |
| 2023-10-11 | €30M | AS Roma |
| 2023-12-20 | €25M | AS Roma |
| 2024-06-05 | €25M | AS Roma |
| 2024-10-18 | €22M | AS Roma |
| 2024-12-18 | €14M | AS Roma |
| 2025-06-17 | €9M | AS Roma |
| 2025-12-23 | €9M | AS Roma |
| 2026-05-29 | €8M | AS Roma |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.298
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Serie A507 players · median €5.5M
Valued above 60% of the 507 Serie A players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 74% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Pellegrini appears
- TerminalSerie A in the Player Explorer
- TerminalSerie A on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- BruyneAMSSC Napoli · Serie A€8M
- BogaLWJuventus FC · Serie A€8M
- MeretGKSSC Napoli · Serie A€8M
- ButezGKComo 1907 · Serie A€8M
- XhakaDMSunderland AFC · midfielders€8M
- FofanaCMFC Porto · midfielders€8M
- ChristieCMAFC Bournemouth · midfielders€8M
- KarazorDMVfB Stuttgart · midfielders€8M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).