FairValue

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Portrait of Alex Meret

Alex

Meret

GKItaly · SSC Napoli

№ 240414Established €8.2M −0.02

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

AlexMeret

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
SSC Napoli
League
Serie A
Nationality
Italy
Age
29
Height
190 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Meret at €8M. Model A, which never saw Meret during training, estimates €8.2M: the market value is 2% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.02. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.02A €8.2M▲ +1.22B €2.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
47
Minutes
4,166
Started
47/47
Min / app
89
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Meret…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €8MModel A €8.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Alex Meret's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 68th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 39th, European club minutes 65th68thMinutes62ndStarts39thRecent65thEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

4,166 this player2,790 goalkeeper median68th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,210

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Nov 2013
Peak
€40M
Dec 2019
Model target
€8M
May 2026
Valuations
35
3 club changes
May 2026€8MSSC NapoliValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €8M, SSC Napoli. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-11-01€100kUdinese Primavera
2014-05-18€250kUdinese Primavera
2015-01-07€250kUdinese Calcio
2015-07-01€400kUdinese Calcio
2016-01-04€600kUdinese Calcio
2016-07-15€1MSPAL 2013
2016-12-19€1MSPAL 2013
2017-06-09€4MSPAL 2013
2017-12-29€4MSPAL 2013
2018-03-24€8MSPAL 2013
2018-06-07€12MSPAL 2013
2018-10-12€16MSSC Napoli
2018-12-20€16MSSC Napoli
2019-03-01€20MSSC Napoli
2019-06-06€25MSSC Napoli
2019-10-08€30MSSC Napoli
2019-12-12€40MSSC Napoli
2020-03-03€35MSSC Napoli
2020-04-08€28MSSC Napoli
2020-08-25€25MSSC Napoli
2020-12-29€20MSSC Napoli
2021-05-25€20MSSC Napoli
2021-10-14€18MSSC Napoli
2021-12-28€15MSSC Napoli
2022-03-15€12MSSC Napoli
2022-06-07€10MSSC Napoli
2022-11-11€13MSSC Napoli
2023-03-21€18MSSC Napoli
2023-06-15€18MSSC Napoli
2023-12-20€15MSSC Napoli
2024-06-05€12MSSC Napoli
2024-12-18€12MSSC Napoli
2025-06-17€18MSSC Napoli
2025-12-23€14MSSC Napoli
2026-05-29€8MSSC Napoli

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.020

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 60% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€8MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 85% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Meret appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).