FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Nikolay

Rasskazov

RBRussia · Krylya Sovetov Samara

№ 285868Emerging €1.5M −0.19

Player dossierPremier Liga

NikolayRasskazov

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Krylya Sovetov Samara
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
28
Height
178 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Rasskazov at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Rasskazov during training, estimates €1.5M: the market value is 18% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.22. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.19A €1.5M▼ −0.60B €2.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
62
Minutes
4,323
Goals
1
Assists
8
Started
50/62
Min / app
70
Cards
11Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Rasskazov…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.2MModel A €1.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Nikolay Rasskazov's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 41st, Assists per 90 91st, Minutes, two years 74th, Starts 46th, Minutes, last 365 days 71st, European club minutes 30th41stGoals91stAssists74thMinutes46thStarts71stRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.17 this player0.04 defender median91st percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€275k
Aug 2015
Peak
€2.8M
Jun 2019
Model target
€1.2M
May 2026
Valuations
26
5 club changes
May 2026€1.2MKrylya Sovetov SamaraValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.2M, Krylya Sovetov Samara. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-08-25€275kSpartak Moskow II
2016-12-02€300kSpartak Moskow II
2017-06-01€300kSpartak 2 Moscow
2018-06-06€400kSpartak 2 Moscow
2018-09-03€600kSpartak Moscow
2018-10-15€1MSpartak Moscow
2018-12-20€2MSpartak Moscow
2019-06-14€2.8MSpartak Moscow
2019-12-23€2.5MSpartak Moscow
2020-04-08€2.3MSpartak Moscow
2020-07-29€2MSpartak Moscow
2020-12-29€1.8MArsenal Tula
2021-04-13€1.5MArsenal Tula
2021-06-02€1.5MArsenal Tula
2021-12-29€1.2MSpartak Moscow
2022-06-02€900kSpartak Moscow
2022-11-21€600kSpartak Moscow
2023-06-14€600kKrylya Sovetov Samara
2023-10-05€900kKrylya Sovetov Samara
2023-12-13€1MKrylya Sovetov Samara
2024-06-04€1.5MKrylya Sovetov Samara
2024-12-12€1.5MKrylya Sovetov Samara
2025-06-04€1.5MKrylya Sovetov Samara
2025-12-16€1.5MKrylya Sovetov Samara
2026-03-25€1.2MKrylya Sovetov Samara
2026-05-26€1.2MKrylya Sovetov Samara

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.195

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 51% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 39% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Rasskazov appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).