FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Ross

Doohan

GKScotland · Celtic FC

№ 285283Emerging €281k −0.12

Player dossierPremiership

RossDoohan

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Celtic FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
Scotland
Age
28
Height
186 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Doohan at €250k. Model A, which never saw Doohan during training, estimates €281k: the market value is 11% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.12. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €508k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.12A €281k▼ −0.71B €508k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
17
Minutes
1,485
Started
16/17
Min / app
87
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Doohan…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €250k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €250kModel A €281k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Ross Doohan's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 29th, Starts 12th, Minutes, last 365 days 2nd, European club minutes 32nd29thMinutes12thStarts2ndRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

0% this player0% goalkeeper median32nd percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●86%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Jan 2019
Peak
€400k
Jun 2019
Model target
€250k
May 2026
Valuations
14
7 club changes
May 2026€250kCeltic FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €250k, Celtic FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-01-03€200kAyr United FC
2019-06-16€400kCeltic FC B
2020-02-05€400kAyr United FC
2020-04-08€350kAyr United FC
2021-01-18€250kCeltic FC B
2022-06-27€250kCeltic FC
2023-04-05€250kForest Green Rovers
2023-06-09€250kForest Green Rovers
2023-12-05€250kAberdeen FC
2024-05-30€250kAberdeen FC
2024-12-03€250kAberdeen FC
2025-06-17€250kAberdeen FC
2025-12-10€250kCeltic FC
2026-05-20€250kCeltic FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.117

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 32% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€250kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 13% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€250kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Doohan appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).